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volume 51, issue 2, may 2023
1. title: political institutions, punctuated equilibrium theory, and policy disasters
authors: e. j. fagan
abstract: this paper develops a theory of the relationship between policy disasters and political institutions. policy disasters, defined as avoidable, unintended extreme negative policy outcomes, are important political, and historical events above that receive relatively little attention from political scientists and scholars of public policy. using the predictions of punctuated equilibrium theory, i argue that systems with higher error accumulation will experience more policy disasters. systems with more veto players and weaker information flows will experience more policy disasters, but information flows will have a stronger impact than veto players. i test this theory using data on financial crises and natural and technological disasters across 70 countries over 60 years. i find strong evidence that systems with weaker information flows and more veto players tend to have greater policy disaster risk.
2. title: the calm before the storm: a punctuated equilibrium theory of international politics
authors: jeroen joly, friederike richter
abstract: research has shown that policymaking in numerous domestic policies, across a multitude of polities, systematically produces a pattern of change that matches punctuated equilibrium theory (pet), characterized by many incremental and occasional dramatic changes. the field of international relations (ir), however, has paid surprisingly little attention to pet, even though the same pattern of change is also found in international politics. this study attempts to fill this gap and explains stability and change in international politics based on pet. specifically, we detail the dynamics behind this pattern of behavior, both at the domestic and the international level, as well as their interplay. the empirical section shows that different indicators of international politics, including troop deployments, foreign aid and international trade, follow a leptokurtic pattern of change, which characterizes punctuated equilibrium, and whereby changes in countries' behavior are generally incremental, representing periods of relative stability, and punctuated by large changes that dramatically overthrow existing policies. moreover, our results indicate that policy outputs where greater friction is at play are more punctuated than those policies that cannot as easily or directly be managed. this study urges future research to further explore the dynamics of stability and change at the aggregate, international level.
3. title: what do we know about the punctuated equilibrium theory in china? a systematic review and research priorities
authors: annemieke van den dool, jialin li
abstract: the punctuated equilibrium theory (pet) shows that government policy is mostly stable with occasional drastic change, which scholars attribute to institutional friction and limited information processing capacity. although the existing pet literature predominantly focuses on democracies, scholars have started to apply the theory to authoritarian countries. autocracies are a fertile testing ground for the theory's underlying mechanisms because they appear to experience less institutional friction but more informational restrictions than democracies. however, pet studies on autocracies are still rare. to deepen our understanding of the pet and the policy process beyond democracies, we conduct a systematic review of 88 chinese language pet journal articles. we show that chinese language pet research is increasing. contrary to the english language pet literature, most chinese studies are qualitative, while a key similarity is the weak operationalization of pet core concepts. the reviewed studies confirm a punctuated equilibrium pattern of policymaking in china but provide only limited evidence for more intense punctuations compared with democracies. future pet research on china ought to use long-term data sets and examine institutional friction and information processing by policymakers. we also argue for more international exchange and comparative research to advance our understanding of the policy process in china and other autocracies.
4. title: the executive lawmaking agenda: political parties, prime ministers, and policy change in australia
authors: andrew gibbons, rhonda evans
abstract: in westminster systems, governments enjoy a privileged position in the lawmaking process that they can use to deliver on their campaign promises and achieve their policy goals. what policy areas do governments seek to affect through lawmaking? how stable is the executive lawmaking agenda? how responsive is that agenda to changes triggered by elections or by transitions in prime minister? this study uses a dataset of 3982 australian bills introduced between 2000 and 2017 to answer these questions. while it finds considerable stability in the policy content of executive lawmaking agendas, the analysis also indicates that australia's executive lawmaking agenda is more responsive to changes in prime minister than to changes in the party in power. as the first application of the comparative policy agendas approaches to government bills in australia, this article offers new insights into executive lawmaking priorities during an especially turbulent period in australian politics.
5. title: the multiple streams framework in a nondemocracy: the infeasibility of a national ban on live poultry sales in china
authors: annemieke van den dool
abstract: in response to calls to apply the multiple streams framework to nondemocracies, this article adapts the framework to an authoritarian context and applies it to a case study of live poultry sales in food markets in china, a key issue in epidemic prevention. using a dataset consisting of chinese policy documents, chinese news articles, world health organization data, and secondary literature, the study shows that despite the public health threat posed by live poultry sales and despite high-level political support, a national-level permanent ban has not been adopted because it is technically infeasible, financially inviable, and inconsistent with existing norms and values. the study suggests that�despite the country's top-down governance style and lack of political pluralism�policy preferences expressed by members of the policy-making elite are not necessarily adopted in authoritarian china. future research should test the proposed hypotheses in other policy areas and other authoritarian contexts.
6. title: relational coupling of multiple streams: the case of covid-19 infections in german abattoirs
authors: malte m�ck, colette s. vogeler, nils c. bandelow, johanna hornung
abstract: after a series of covid-19 outbreaks among employees in the german meat-processing industry, the work safety control act protecting these workers made it on the government's agenda in july 2020. from a multiple streams perspective, local corona hotspots may be understood as policy windows for introducing respective measures. however, this alone is not sufficient to explain agenda setting. this study investigates the coupling of streams within policy windows. introducing the notion of relational coupling to the msf research agenda, discourse network analysis provides a new methodology to reveal entrepreneurial activities. studying the german mass media discourse on the issue identifies two stages: (1) an initial problem brokerage without coupling of core policies, followed by (2) a coupling across all streams based on a focusing event. we argue that relational coupling allows for an enhanced understanding of agenda setting.
7. title: drivers of (in)equity in collaborative environmental governance
authors: kristin babson dobbin, michael kuo, mark lubell, darcy bostic, jessica mendoza, ernest echeveste
abstract: collaborative environmental governance seeks to engage diverse stakeholders to tackle complex challenges efficiently, sustainably, and equitably. however, mixed empirical evidence underscores a need to understand the conditions under which particularly equity is or is not achieved. here, we use the empirical case of california sustainable groundwater management to quantify the extent to which vulnerable small and rural drinking water users' needs are addressed in collaborative groundwater planning. drawing on a diverse array of mixed method data, we then employ boosted regression and classification trees (brct) to assess potential driving factors including collaboration, representation, elite capture, stakeholder engagement, and problem severity/salience. we find each to be influential, highlighting their relevance for equitable planning. we also find evidence that these relationships are complex and outcome specific. nonetheless, the overall effect on the three equity measures is modest at best. more institutional analysis of collaborative governance regimes from diverse contexts is needed to build a comprehensive understanding of how to meaningfully advance social and environmental equity in such decentralized reforms. based on our results, we suggest the answer, if there is one, may transcend current focal domains such as stakeholder representation and engagement.
8. title: environmental governance in china: the effects of policy clarity, career concerns, and new appointed officials on pollution control
authors: jingran sun, linfeng yue, xiangyu (dale) li, min dai
abstract: in the last three decades, china has taken actions to tackle its environmental issues while the tension between policymakers at the central level and decentralized implementation of such policies has been a major concern. this study investigates how policy clarity and high powered incentive system jointly affect organizational performance in the context of environmental governance in china. utilizing city-level data compiled with text data extracted from report on the work of the government from 2004 to 2015 and difference in differences (did) design, we find that the compliance of local officials to protect the environment as well as the actual environmental protection outcome significantly increased. our study also finds evidence that newly-appointed party secretaries at the city level are the main facilitators of enhancing environmental regulation policies. this research proposes a two by two typology based on the principal-agent theory explaining how successful environmental governance within this period in china is realized and offers practical implications for those who seek to enhance the effectiveness of environmental governance.
9. title: policy attributes shape climate policy support
authors: eric a. coleman, niklas harring, sverker c. jagers
abstract: understanding how preferences for public policy instruments shape policy support helps policymakers to design policies that begin to tackle large-scale and complex problems, such as climate change. climate change policies generate both local and global costs and benefits, which affect the public's policy preferences. in this article we investigate the role of perceived conditional cooperation and distributive concerns on climate policy attitude formation. we identify a range of climate policies and test public opinion for adoption of these policies at different scales of government. the important theoretical distinction is the scale-driven distributional nature of policy costs and benefits as well as concerns regarding the cooperation of other actors. we use data from sweden and a conjoint experimental design where we vary level of government, type of policy, and the targeted group. we find evidence that people support policies when costs are shared broadly. we also find that support for climate policy is conditional on expected policy adoption by other units of government at various scales. this implies that unpopular climate policies might be more popular if the funding structure of the policy allows for binding policy and that the cost-sharing is taking place at higher levels of government.
10. title: mitigating conflict with collaboration: reaching negotiated agreement amidst belief divergence in environmental governance
authors: elizabeth a. koebele, deserai a. crow
abstract: high levels of conflict among coalitions in a policy process are often attributed to belief divergence and may lead to policy gridlock. thus, reducing belief divergence may facilitate negotiation and open the door for policy change. beliefs are notoriously difficult to change, however, especially in high-conflict settings. collaborative governance has been touted as one method for mitigating conflict to a level where negotiation is possible by means including but not limited to belief change. this study investigates the relationship between belief divergence as a driver of policy conflict and collaborative governance as a conflict mitigation tool by analyzing the beliefs of two opposing coalitions as they participate in a decade-long collaborative environmental governance process that ended in negotiated agreement. using longitudinal survey and interview data, we find that coalitions' beliefs diverge more at a later point in the process, due primarily to the reinforcement and strengthening of one coalition's beliefs; however, we also identify aspects of the collaborative process that helped foster negotiated agreement amidst this growing belief divergence. these findings can inform scholarship on conflict mitigation in environmental governance as well as the design of more effective collaborative processes in high-conflict settings.
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