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volume 41, issue 4, autumn 2022
1. title: does online credit recovery in high school support or stymie later labor market success?
authors: carolyn j. heinrich, huiping cheng
abstract: an emerging body of research links online credit recovery programs to rising high school graduation rates but does not find comparable increases in student learning. this study follows high school students who engaged in online credit recovery into the labor market to understand the longer-term implications of this growing educational trend. if online credit recovery contributes to high school completion and facilitates job entry, then participants in online credit recovery may have labor market outcomes that differ little relative to those recovering credits in traditional classroom settings. however, if online credit recovery courses are inferior in terms of the knowledge or skills they impart and that learning is critical to workforce success, then online credit recovery participants may earn less over time. the study findings suggest that high school students who participated in online credit recovery initially had earnings on par with those who did not recover course credits online, but a negative differential emerged between their earnings and the earnings of nonparticipants that grew over time. we found no evidence to suggest that students ever benefitted in the labor market from online credit recovery in high school.
2. title: veteran educators or for-profiteers? tuition responses to changes in the post-9/11 gi bill
authors: matthew baird, michael s. kofoed, trey miller, jennie wenger
abstract: in 2010, congress reauthorized the post-9/11 gi bill by changing reimbursement rates from by-state maximums to a nationwide limit. this policy created exogenous variation in financial aid for veterans at private universities. we detect changes in tuition only for for-profit colleges, where we estimate a 1 percent pass-through rate. this response is mainly from states with decreased benefits; colleges with more veterans, and colleges whose pre-change tuition was above the state maximum but below the new nationwide level had a pass-through rate of 8 percent. we also find a negative association between changes in benefits and overall student enrollment for for-profit colleges.
3. title: finishing the last lap: experimental evidence on strategies to increase attainment for students near college completion
authors: eric p. bettinger, benjamin l. castleman, alice choe, zachary mabel
abstract: nearly half of students who enter college do not graduate. the majority of efforts to increase college completion have focused on supporting students before or soon after they enter college, yet many students drop out after making significant progress towards their degree. in this paper, we report results from a multi-year, large-scale experimental intervention conducted across five states and 20 broad-access public colleges and universities to support students who are late in their college career but still at risk of not graduating. the intervention provided these �near-completer� students with personalized text messages that encouraged them to connect with campus-based academic and financial resources, reminded them of upcoming and important deadlines, and invited them to engage (via text) with campus-based advisors. we find little evidence that the message campaign affected academic performance or attainment in either the full sample or within individual higher education systems or student subgroups. the findings suggest low-cost nudge interventions may be insufficient for addressing barriers to completion among students who have made considerable academic progress.
4. title: health care following environmental disasters: evidence from flint
authors: shooshan danagoulian, daniel grossman, david slusky
abstract: environmental disasters can affect how individuals use healthcare services. we use the flint water crisis to examine rates of avoidable emergency care, which is costly to both providers and patients, and office visits. in september 2015, the city of flint issued a lead advisory to its residents, alerting them of increased lead levels in their drinking water, resulting from the switch in water source from lake huron to the flint river. using medicaid claims for 2013 to 2016, we find that this advisory, which became national news, increased the share of enrollees who had lead tests performed by 1.7 percentage points. additionally, it increased office visits immediately, and led to a reduction of 4.9 preventable, non-emergent, and primary-care-treatable emergency room visits per 1,000 eligible children (8.3 percent). this decrease is present in shifts from emergency room visits to office visits across several common conditions. our analysis suggests that children were more likely to receive care from the same clinic following lead tests and that establishing care reduced the likelihood parents would take their children to emergency rooms for conditions that would have been treatable in an office setting. our results show that environmental disasters that induce health checkups can prompt individuals to change their type and venue of health care, particularly moving away from emergency departments and toward the office setting.
5. title: value-based payments in health care: evidence from a nationwide randomized experiment in the home health sector
authors: jun li
abstract: value-based payment programs, also known as pay-for-performance, use financial incentives to motivate providers to invest in quality and are a critical part of medicare health care reform. this study examines the first year of the home health value-based purchasing program, a nationally representative cluster randomized experiment implemented by the centers for medicare & medicaid services in 2016. the goal of the program is to achieve better home health care quality. home health agencies in treatment states were rewarded or penalized based on their performance on agency-reported and non-agency-reported quality measures. the program improved agency-reported measures by approximately one percentage point, and performance gains suggest a dose-response relationship with respect to incentive size. however, the performance gains in agency-reported measures did not reflect true quality improvement. i find evidence that agencies manipulated their coding of patients and inflated their performance. coding manipulation explains the entirety of the program's impact on agency-reported measures.
6. title: alcohol price floors and externalities: the case of fatal road crashes
authors: marco francesconi, jonathan james
abstract: in may 2018, scotland introduced a minimum unit price on alcohol. we examine the impact of this policy on traffic fatalities and drunk driving accidents. using administrative data on the universe of vehicle collisions in britain and a range of quasi-experimental modeling approaches, we do not find that the policy had an effect on road crash deaths and drunk driving collisions. the results are robust to several sensitivity exercises. there is no evidence of effect heterogeneity by income and other predictors of alcohol consumption or cross-border effects. a brief discussion of the policy implications of our findings is provided.
7. title: standing in cost-benefit analysis: where, who, what (counts)?
authors: anthony e. boardman, david h. greenberg, aidan r. vining, david l. weimer
abstract: whose costs and benefits should count in cost-benefit analysis (cba)? this is an important practical question requiring answers for analysts because most government agencies offer only permissive or vague guidance. drawing primarily on foundational cba principles, we present a conceptual framework for specifying standing to answer three important boundary questions: where? who? what? first, a standing framework requires a definition of jurisdictional boundaries (the �where� question), whether national, subnational, or supranational. second, a framework should be clear about which persons within the jurisdiction have standing (the �who� question). for example, should undocumented residents have standing? third, the framework requires clarity on the standing of certain individual preferences (the �what� question), such as for harmfully addictive private or public goods that express �moral sentiments,� or when choices do not maximize the value of consumption. we seek to provide guidance for cba practice within this framework.
8. title: estimating monthly poverty rates in the united states
authors: zachary parolin, megan curran, jordan matsudaira, jane waldfogel, christopher wimer
abstract: official poverty estimates for the united states are presented annually, based on a family unit's annual resources, and reported with a considerable lag. this study introduces a framework to produce monthly estimates of the supplemental poverty measure and official poverty measure, based on a family unit's monthly income, and with a two-week lag. we argue that a shorter accounting period and more timely estimates of poverty better account for intra-year income volatility and better inform the public of current economic conditions. our framework uses two versions of the current population survey to estimate monthly poverty while accounting for changes in policy, demographic composition, and labor market characteristics. validation tests demonstrate that our monthly poverty estimates closely align with observed trends in the survey of income & program participation from 2004 to 2016 and trends in hardship during the covid-19 pandemic. we apply the framework to measure trends in monthly poverty from january 1994 through september 2021. monthly poverty rates generally declined in the 1990s, increased throughout the 2000s, and declined after the great recession through the onset of the covid-19 pandemic. within-year variation in monthly poverty rates, however, has generally increased. among families with children, within-year variation in monthly poverty rates is comparable to between-year variation, largely due to the average family with children receiving 37 percent of its annual income transfers in a single month through one-time tax credit payments. moving forward, researchers can apply our framework to produce monthly poverty rates whenever more timely estimates are desired.
9. title: bayesian interpretation of cluster-robust subgroup impact estimates: the best of both worlds
authors: erin r. lipman, john deke, mariel m. finucane
abstract: policymakers are often interested in understanding the impact of an intervention on specific subgroups, not just an overall population. but analyzing subgroup impacts poses challenges. subgroup estimates are noisier than whole population estimates due to smaller sample sizes. in addition, within the null hypothesis significance testing framework, the chance of a statistically significant impact estimate�where in truth the policy has no meaningful impact�grows rapidly with the number of subgroups considered. hierarchical bayesian models address these problems by using partial pooling of information between subgroups to make precise estimates of effects even in smaller subgroups and to correct for the multiple comparisons problem in a data driven way. however, bayesian models can be computationally infeasible with large data. we propose a �best of both worlds� hybrid approach that combines the low computational cost of fitting non-bayesian models with the interpretability and precision of bayesian models. we use a health policy simulation to show that, compared to its non-bayesian counterpart, this hybrid approach produces more precise estimates and more accurately estimates the probability of favorable subgroup impacts, both of which can lead to healthcare cost savings in a plausible policy scenario with small heterogeneous impacts.
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10. title: beyond polarization: public process and the unlikely story of california's marine protected areas, by steven yaffee, washington, dc: island press, 2020, 485 pp., $45.00 paperback.
authors: jessica geiger
abstract: the article reviews the book �beyond polarization: public process and the unlikely story of california's marine protected areas� by steven lewis yaffee.
11. title: demystifying china's innovation machine: chaotic order, by marina zhang, mark dodgson, and david gann. oxford university press, 2021, 304 pp., $50.00 hardcover.
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abstract: the article reviews the book �demystifying china's innovation machine: chaotic order� by marina zhang and mark dodgson.
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