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��ࡱ�>�� vx����u�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� �r�jdbjbj�)�)2b�c�g�c�g\< �������66������������8\z�q����������p�p�p�p�p�p�p$s��uf�p�������p����4�p����������p���p��������0ٗ�p�������:��p�p0q��u�:�u���0�u�`m(���������p�p4����q�������������������������������������������������������������������������u���������6b �:  the quarterly journal of economics volume 138, issue 2, may 2023 1. title: does directed innovation mitigate climate damage? evidence from u.s. agriculture authors: jacob moscona and karthik a sastry abstract: this article studies how innovation reacts to climate change and shapes its economic impacts, focusing on u.s. agriculture. we show in a model that directed innovation can either mitigate or exacerbate climate change�s potential economic damage depending on the substitutability between new technology and favorable climatic conditions. to empirically investigate the technological response to climate change, we measure crop-specific exposure to damaging extreme temperatures and crop-specific innovation embodied in new variety releases and patents. we find that innovation has redirected since the mid-twentieth century toward crops with increasing exposure to extreme temperatures. moreover, this effect is driven by types of agricultural technology most related to environmental adaptation. we next show that u.s. counties� exposure to induced innovation significantly dampens the local economic damage from extreme temperatures. combining these estimates with the model, we find that directed innovation has offset 20% of potential losses in u.s. agricultural land value due to damaging climate trends since 1960 and that innovation could offset 13% of projected damage by 2100. these findings highlight the vital importance, but incomplete effectiveness, of endogenous technological change as a source of adaptation to climate change. 2. title: how do campaigns shape vote choice? multicountry evidence from 62 elections and 56 tv debates authors: caroline le pennec and vincent pons abstract: we use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. our data include 253,000 observations. we compare the consistency between vote intention and vote choice of respondents surveyed at different points before, and then again after, the election, and show that 17% to 29% of voters make up their mind during the final two months of campaigns. changes in vote choice are concomitant to shifts in issues voters find most important and in beliefs about candidates, and they generate sizable swings in vote shares. in contrast, policy preferences remain remarkably stable throughout the campaign. finally, we use an event study to estimate the impact of tv debates, in which candidates themselves communicate with voters, and of shocks such as natural and technological disasters which, by contrast, occur independently from the campaign. we do not find any effect of either type of event on vote choice formation, suggesting that information received throughout the campaign from other sources such as the media, political activists, and other citizens is more impactful. 3. title: welfare and output with income effects and taste shocks authors: david r baqaee and ariel burstein abstract: we present a unified treatment of how welfare responds to changes in budget sets or technologies with taste shocks and nonhomothetic preferences. we propose a welfare metric that ranks production possibility frontiers that differs from one that ranks budget sets and characterize it using a general equilibrium generalization of hicksian demand. this extends hulten�s theorem, the basis for constructing aggregate quantity indices, to environments with nonhomothetic and unstable preferences. we illustrate our results using both long- and short-run applications. in the long run, we show that if structural transformation is caused by income effects or changes in tastes, rather than substitution effects, then baumol�s cost disease is twice as important for our preferred measure of welfare. in the short run, we show that standard chain-weighted deflators understate welfare-relevant inflation for current tastes. finally, using the covid-19 recession, we illustrate that chain-weighted real consumption and real gdp are unreliable metrics for measuring welfare or production when there are taste shocks. 4. title: use it or lose it: efficiency and redistributional effects of wealth taxation authors: fatih guvenen, gueorgui kambourov, burhan kuruscu, sergio ocampo, daphne chen abstract: how does wealth taxation differ from capital income taxation? when the return on investment is equal across individuals, a well-known result is that the two tax systems are equivalent. motivated by recent empirical evidence documenting persistent return heterogeneity, we revisit this question. with heterogeneity, the two tax systems typically have opposite implications for efficiency and inequality. under capital income taxation, entrepreneurs who are more productive and therefore generate more income pay higher taxes. under wealth taxation, entrepreneurs who have similar wealth levels pay similar taxes regardless of their productivity, which expands the tax base, shifts the tax burden toward unproductive entrepreneurs, and raises the savings rate of productive ones. this reallocation increases aggregate productivity and output. in the simulated model parameterized to match the u.s. data, replacing the capital income tax with a wealth tax in a revenue-neutral way delivers a significantly higher average welfare. turning to optimal taxation, the optimal wealth tax (owt) is positive and yields large welfare gains by raising efficiency and lowering inequality. in contrast, the optimal capital income tax (okit) is negative�a subsidy�and delivers lower welfare gains than owt, owing to the welfare losses from higher inequality. furthermore, when the transition path is considered, the gains from okit turn into significant welfare losses for existing cohorts, whereas owt continues to deliver robust welfare gains. these results suggest that moderate wealth taxation may be a more appealing alternative than capital income taxation, which can be significantly more distorting under return heterogeneity than under the equal-returns assumption. 5. title: cutting the innovation engine: how federal funding shocks affect university patenting, entrepreneurship, and publications authors: tania babina, alex xi he, sabrina t howell, elisabeth ruth perlman, joseph staudt abstract: this article studies how federal funding affects the innovation outputs of university researchers. we link person-level research grants from 22 universities to patents, publications, and career outcomes from the u.s. census bureau. we focus on the effects of large, idiosyncratic, and temporary cuts to federal funding in a researcher�s preexisting narrow field of study. using an event study design, we document that these negative federal funding shocks reduce high-tech entrepreneurship and publications but increase patenting. the lost publications tend to be higher quality and more basic, whereas the additional patents tend to be lower quality, less general, and more often privately assigned. these federal funding cuts lead to an increase in private funding, which partially compensates for the decline in federal funding. together with evidence from industry-university contracts, the results suggest that federal funding cuts shift university research funding from federal to private sources and lead to innovation outputs that are less openly accessible and more often appropriated by corporate funders. 6. title: learning from shared news: when abundant information leads to belief polarization authors: t renee bowen, danil dmitriev, simone galperti abstract: we study learning via shared news. each period agents receive the same quantity and quality of firsthand information and can share it with friends. some friends (possibly few) share selectively, generating heterogeneous news diets across agents. agents are aware of selective sharing and update beliefs by bayes�s rule. contrary to standard learning results, we show that beliefs can diverge in this environment, leading to polarization. this requires that (i) agents hold misperceptions (even minor) about friends� sharing and (ii) information quality is sufficiently low. polarization can worsen when agents� friend networks expand. when the quantity of firsthand information becomes large, agents can hold opposite extreme beliefs, resulting in severe polarization. we find that news aggregators can curb polarization caused by news sharing. our results hold without media bias or fake news, so eliminating these is not sufficient to reduce polarization. when fake news is included, it can lead to polarization but only through misperceived selective sharing. we apply our theory to shed light on the polarization of public opinion about climate change in the united states. 7. title: why do borrowers default on mortgages? authors: peter ganong and pascal noel abstract: there are three prevailing theories of mortgage default: strategic default (driven by negative equity), cash flow default (driven by negative life events), and double-trigger default (where both negative triggers are necessary). it has been difficult to compare these theories in part because negative life events are measured with error. we address this measurement error using a comparison group of borrowers with no strategic-default motive. our central finding is that only 6% of underwater defaults are caused exclusively by negative equity, an order of magnitude lower than previously thought. we then analyze the remaining defaults. we find that 70% are driven solely by negative life events (i.e., cash flow defaults), while 24% are driven by the interaction between negative life events and negative equity (i.e., double-trigger defaults). together, the results provide a full decomposition of the theories underlying borrower default and suggest that negative life events play a central role. 8. title: web of power: how elite networks shaped war and politics in china authors: ying bai, ruixue jia, jiaojiao yang abstract: scholars have argued that powerful individuals can exert influence on the path of a nation�s development. yet the process through which people can have an effect on macro-level political economy outcomes remains unclear. this study uses the deadliest civil war in modern history, the taiping rebellion (1850�1864), to elucidate how one person�zeng guofan�used his personal elite networks to organize an army to suppress the rebellion, and how these networks would affect the nation�s power distribution. two findings stand out: (i) counties that already had more prewar elites in zeng�s networks experienced an increase in soldier deaths after he took power; and (ii) postwar political power shifted significantly toward the home counties of these elites, creating a less balanced national-level power distribution. our findings highlight how micro-level elite networks can influence national politics and societal power distribution, shedding new light on the relationship between elites, war, and the state. 9. title: globalization, trade imbalances, and labor market adjustment authors: rafael dix-carneiro, jo�o paulo pessoa, ricardo reyes-heroles, sharon traiberman abstract: we argue that modeling trade imbalances is crucial for understanding transitional dynamics in response to globalization shocks. we build and estimate a general equilibrium, multicountry, multisector model of trade with two key ingredients: (i) endogenous trade imbalances arising from households� consumption and saving decisions; (ii) labor market frictions across and within sectors. we use our model to perform several empirical exercises. we find that the �china shock� accounted for 28% of the decline in u.s. manufacturing between 2000 and 2014�1.65 times the magnitude predicted from a model imposing balanced trade. a concurrent rise in u.s. service employment led to a negligible aggregate unemployment response. we benchmark our model�s predictions for the gains from trade against the popular acr sufficient-statistics approach. we find that our predictions for the long-run gains from trade and consumption dynamics significantly diverge. 10. title: the fractured-land hypothesis authors: jes�s fern�ndez-villaverde, mark koyama, youhong lin, tuan-hwee sng abstract: patterns of state formation have crucial implications for comparative economic development. diamond (1997) famously argued that �fractured land� was responsible for china�s tendency toward political unification and europe�s protracted polycentrism. we build a dynamic model with granular geographical information in terms of topographical features and the location of productive agricultural land to quantitatively gauge the effects of fractured land on state formation in eurasia. we find that topography alone is sufficient but not necessary to explain polycentrism in europe and unification in china. differences in land productivity, in particular the existence of a core region of high land productivity in northern china, deliver the same result. we discuss how our results map into observed historical outcomes, assess how robust our findings are, and analyze the differences between theory and data in africa and the americas. 11. title: let the worst one fail: a credible solution to the too-big-to-fail conundrum authors: thomas philippon and olivier wang abstract: we study time-consistent bank resolution mechanisms. the key constraint is that governments cannot avoid bailouts that are ex post efficient. contrary to common wisdom, we show that the government may still avoid moral hazard and implement the first-best allocation by using the distribution of bailouts across banks to provide incentives. we analyze properties of credible tournament mechanisms that provide support to the best-performing banks and resolve the worst-performing ones. we extend our mechanism and show that it continues to perform well when banks are imperfect substitutes, when they are differentially interconnected as long as bailout funds can be earmarked, and when their risk-taking is driven by overoptimism instead of moral hazard. 12. title: the refugee�s dilemma: evidence from jewish migration out of nazi germany authors: johannes buggle, thierry mayer, seyhun orcan sakalli, mathias thoenig abstract: we estimate the push and pull factors involved in the outmigration of jews facing persecution in nazi germany from 1933 to 1941. our empirical investigation makes use of a unique individual-level data set that records the migration history of the jewish community in germany over the period. our analysis highlights new channels, specific to violent contexts, through which social networks affect the decision to flee. we estimate a structural model of migration where individuals base their migration decision on the observation of persecution and migration among their peers. identification rests on exogenous variations in local push and pull factors across peers who live in different cities of residence. then we perform various experiments of counterfactual history to quantify how migration restrictions in destination countries affected the fate of jews. for example, removing work restrictions for refugees in the recipient countries after the nuremberg laws (1935) would 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