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volume 113, issue 1, jan 2023
1. title: retail pharmacies and drug diversion during the opioid epidemic.
authors: janssen, aljoscha; zhang, xuan.
abstract: this study investigates the role of retail pharmacy ownership in the opioid epidemic. using data of prescription opioid orders, we show that compared with chain pharmacies, independent pharmacies dispense 39.1 percent more opioids and 60.5 percent more oxycontin. after an independent pharmacy becomes a chain pharmacy, opioid dispensing decreases. using the oxycontin reformulation, which reduced nonmedical demand but not the legitimate medical demand, we show that at least one-third of the difference in the amount of oxycontin dispensed can be attributed to nonmedical demand. we show that differences in competitive pressure and whether pharmacists own the pharmacy drive our estimates.
2. title: conflict and intergroup trade: evidence from the 2014 russia-ukraine crisis.
authors: korovkin, vasily; makarin, alexey.
abstract: does armed conflict reduce trade, even in noncombat areas, through the destruction of intergroup social capital? we analyze ukrainian trade transactions before and after the 2014 russia-ukraine conflict. in a difference-in-differences framework, we find that ukrainian firms from districts with fewer ethnic russians experienced a deeper decline in trade with russia. this decline is economically signifi-cant, persistent, and can be explained by erosion of intergroup trust. affected ukrainian firms suffered a decrease in performance and diverted trade to other countries. our results suggest that, through social effects, conflict can be economically damaging even away from combat areas.
3. title: what caused racial disparities in particulate exposure to fall? new evidence from the clean air act and satellite-based measures of air quality.
authors: currie, janet; voorheis, john; walker, reed.
abstract: this project links administrative census microdata to spatially continuous measures of particulate pollution (pm2.5) to first document and then decompose the key drivers of convergence in black-white pollution exposure differences. we use quantile regression to show that a significant portion of the convergence in black-white exposure is attributable to differential impacts of the clean air act (caa) in black and white communities. areas with larger black populations saw greater caa-related declines in pm2.5. we show that the caa can account for over 60 percent of the racial convergence in pm2.5 pollution exposure in the united states since 2000.
4. title: multigenerational impacts of childhood access to the safety net: early life exposure to medicaid and the next generation's health.
authors: east, chloe n.; miller, sarah; page, marianne; wherry, laura r.
abstract: we examine multigenerational impacts of positive in utero health interventions using a new research design that exploits sharp increases in prenatal medicaid eligibility that occurred in some states. our analyses are based on us vital statistics natality files, which enables linkages between individuals' early life medicaid exposure and the next generation's health at birth. we find evidence that the health benefits associated with treated generations' early life program exposure extend to later offspring. our results suggest that the returns on early life health investments may be substantively underestimated.
5. title: unobserved-offers bargaining.
authors: wolitzky, alexander.
abstract: i study ultimatum bargaining with imperfectly observed offers. imperfectly observed offers must be rejected with positive probability, even when the players' preferences are common knowledge. noisier observations imply a greater risk of rejection. in repeated ultimatum bargaining, the responding party can obtain a positive payoff if his signal of the opponent's offer is also observed by the opponent herself, but not if his signal is private. in alternating-offers bargaining, a player is better off when her own offers are observed more precisely and her opponent's offers are observed less precisely. possible applications include international relations, regulation, principal-agency, and product quality provision.
6. title: did us politicians expect the china shock?
authors: bombardini, matilde; li, bingjing; trebbi, francesco.
abstract: information sets, expectations, and preferences of politicians are fundamental, but unobserved determinants of their policy choices. employing repeated votes in the us house of representatives on china's normal trade relations (ntr) status during the two decades straddling china's world trade organization (wto) accession, we apply a moment inequality approach designed to deliver consistent estimates under weak informational assumptions on the information sets of members of congress. this methodology offers a robust way to test hypotheses about what information politicians have at the time of their decision and to estimate the weight that constituents, ideology, and other factors have in policy making and voting.
7. title: signaling and discrimination in collaborative projects.
authors: onuchic, paula; ray, debraj.
abstract: we study collaborative work in pairs when potential collaborators are motivated by the reputational implications of (joint or solo) projects. in equilibrium, individual collaboration strategies both influence and are influenced by the public assignment of credit for joint work across the two partners. we investigate the fragility of collaboration to small biases in the public's credit assignment. when collaborators are symmetric, symmetric equilibria are often fragile, and in nonfragile equilibria individuals receive asymmetric collaborative credit based on payoff-irrelevant "identities." we study payoff distributions across identities within asymmetric equilibria, and compare aggregate welfare across symmetric and asymmetric equilibria.
8. title: judging judge fixed effects.
authors: frandsen, brigham; lefgren, lars; leslie, emily.
abstract: we propose a nonparametric test for the exclusion and monotonicity assumptions invoked in instrumental variable (iv) designs based on the random assignment of cases to judges. we show its asymptotic validity and demonstrate its finite-sample performance in simulations. we apply our test in an empirical setting from the literature examining the effects of pretrial detention on defendant outcomes in new york. when the assumptions are not satisfied, we propose weaker versions of the usual exclusion and monotonicity restrictions under which the iv estimator still converges to a proper weighted average of treatment effects.
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