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��ࡱ�>�� u �r�=�bjbj�n�n2��a��at� ��""��8��$��sl��/s1s1s1s1s1s1s$xu�x<usq��us��4�s��/s�/s��ъwڎ��ps�s0�sjxcfjx�/jx�ko��usus��s��jx��"qs: global environmental change volume 86, issue 3, may 2024 1. title: assessing the supply risks of critical metals in china's low-carbon energy transition authors: pengfei yuan, dan li, kuishuang feng, heming wang, ... jiashuo li abstract: the unprecedented low-carbon energy transition has heightened concerns about the security of critical metals (cms) supplies that are essential for clean energy technologies. as the world's largest consumer and importer, china�s cms supply may face significant challenges due to geopolitical uncertainties, price volatility, and other dynamics. here, we introduce a risk-modeling framework to holistically gauge the multifaceted supply risks for 30 cms embedded in clean energy technology spanning from 2008 to 2020. our analysis indicates that approximately one-third of cms supplies grapple with elevated risk, and half of these cms are associated with electric vehicle manufacturing. these risks stem mainly from significant disruption potential (e.g., lithium and palladium) and substantial import reliance (e.g., nickel and niobium). although china's overall cms supply risk has remained relatively stable, the nation has grown increasingly susceptible to disruptions, especially with the surge in clean energy initiatives and associated price hikes. our detailed analysis of the risk comparison reveals that china's supply risk for nine metals (e.g., copper and chromium) exceeds that of other countries that consume large amounts of cms. therefore, by adopting focused strategies related to metals, both governments and industries could benefit from global partnerships, strategic stockpiling, early warning mechanisms and sustainable supply chain management, paving the way for a smooth low-carbon energy transition for china. 2. title: evaluating behavioral responses to climate change in terms of coping and adaptation: an index approach authors: alexandra paige fischer, riva c.h. denny abstract: as individuals and households have increasingly suffered the effects of climate change, substantial research has focused on understanding behavioral adaptation, the process of individuals and households responding to climate change to reduce future risk and improve well-being. however, this research is limited by the challenge of evaluating adaptation and differentiating it from coping. the theoretical literature suggests that planned, proactive, and transformative responses are more consistent with the concept of adaptation, while autonomous, reactive, and incremental efforts are more consistent with the concept of coping. we developed an index based on these features for evaluating behavioral responses to climate change in terms of coping and adaptation. we tested the index with a regression model of variables theorized to foster adaptation. our empirical context was small woodland owners responding to climate change-related stressors (storms, insect and disease outbreaks, winter thaws, droughts, heat waves, and wildfires) by managing their forests in the northwoods, usa. we found that a small but notable proportion of the owners exhibited behavior more consistent with adaptation than coping. a larger proportion of owners exhibited behavior more consistent with coping than adaptation. the greatest proportion exhibited mixed coping-adaptation behavior, confirming theories that coping and adaptation occur on a continuum, with interplay between the two. we also found the regression model explained how consistent their responses were with adaptation relative to coping. our findings advance scholarly understanding of behavioral adaptation and how to evaluate it more consistently and coherently. our findings also enhance practical understanding of how small woodland owners adapt to climate change. 3. title: prospects for a sustainable and climate-resilient african economy post-covid-19 authors: godwell nhamo, lazarus chapungu abstract: this study assesses the potential for establishing a sustainable and climate-resilient african economy, post-covid-19, focusing on kenya, south africa, rwanda, and zimbabwe. utilising the united nation's climate-positive action framework, document analysis, and a systematic literature review, it examines these nations' investment in climate action. findings reveal a decrease in climate funding during the pandemic, with notable gaps in climate finance, including reallocations away from climate-related ministries and delays in project implementation. this decline in climate action poses risks to sustainability and climate resilience. to mitigate these risks, the study emphasizes the need for frameworks to mobilize external and domestic resources for climate action. despite ongoing challenges posed by covid-19, proactive measures are essential to maintain focus on climate action. 4. title: the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of the italian national parks: time and spillover effects across different geographical contexts authors: riccardo d'alberto, matteo zavalloni, francesco pagliacci abstract: protected areas such as national parks are increasingly implemented to achieve the long-term conservation of nature and the provision of ecosystem services, hence preventing biodiversity loss. we study the environmental and socioeconomic impacts generated by eight italian national parks. we estimate the impacts i) on the short and medium term, ii) on the local population and on the neighboring areas (i.e., their spillovers), and iii) differentiating the analysis by the macro-geographical context in which national parks are embedded (i.e., north, center, and south of italy). the analysis is based on the combination of the propensity score matching with the doubly robust difference-in-differences estimator. we find that the national parks have a positive and increasing-over-time impact on the share of forested areas. moreover, from the socioeconomic point of view, their impact has been positive on the number of local units, workers employed (especially in the tourism sector), and the number of incoming work commuters, but negative on the number of agricultural holdings. however, these results depend on the geographical contexts, i.e., most of the positive socioeconomic impacts are in the north. finally, we find (positive) spillover in terms of forested areas, but non-significant socioeconomic ones. 5. title: developing action competence for sustainability � do school experiences in influencing society matter? authors: ane eir torsdottir, daniel olsson, astrid tonette sinnes abstract: in terms of developing students� action competence when it comes to sustainability, the research literature highlights the importance of sustainability action taking in education for sustainable development. however, few studies have statistically investigated the relation between sustainability action taking and students� action competence. recognising the importance of action taking in education for sustainable development, this study investigates school experiences in influencing society as one important aspect of sustainability teaching and learning that promotes students� action competence. we surveyed 902 students across three upper secondary schools situated within the same county municipality in norway. one instrument measured the students� school experiences in influencing society, and another assessed the students� self-perceived action competence defined as i) knowledge of action possibilities, ii) confidence in one�s own influence, and ii) willingness to act. a structural equation model showed that school experiences in influencing society have a positive relation with all the action competence factors, supporting previous research that highlights the importance of taking action with regard to sustainability as a part of education for sustainable development. the findings indicate that providing students with opportunities to influence society can foster their development of action competence for sustainability. 6. title: assessing the social and environmental impacts of critical mineral supply chains for the energy transition in europe authors: etienne berthet, julien lavalley, candy anquetil-deck, fernanda ballesteros, ... alexis laurent abstract: advanced technologies are inherently dependent on critical minerals and their related metals. the mining extraction of these critical minerals leads to significant social and environmental impacts that extend beyond the regions where those advanced technologies are ultimately used. this study explores the global socio-environmental challenges arising from the european climate law's aim for net-zero greenhouse emissions by 2050, focusing on the eu's consumption of critical minerals. developing a novel methodology based on multi-regional input-output (mrio) model, enriched with detailed mineral production data from specific ore-to-mineral ratios and socio-environmental information, this work assesses the impacts of the eu's mineral consumption within its energy transition framework. this innovative approach extends beyond ore extraction to encompass all stages of the supply chain. key findings indicate that the continental europe accounts for 60% of the eu's ore extraction footprint, yet only 35% of the mineral footprint for the 34 analyzed critical minerals. in contrast, africa's and south america's shares are 12% and 29%, respectively, markedly higher than attributed in previous studies. the study highlights challenges in securing these minerals, including potential usage conflicts and increased mining in water-scarce basins within australia, kazakhstan, south africa, and chile, hence exacerbating environmental and community issues. furthermore, the research suggests that achieving the eu's climate goals could expose between 15 and 89,000 african miners to increased modern slavery vulnerabilities by 2040. however, adherence to the eu green deal principles could mitigate these risks and recommendations are proposed, including diversifying mineral supply chains, establishing partnerships with countries that maintain high socio-environmental standards, and adopting circular economy paradigms and innovative solutions. this study advocates its new methodological development to build comprehensive strategies balancing climate goals with the global socio-environmental effects of critical mineral extraction, especially in developing countries. 7. title: automatic deforestation driver attribution using deep learning on satellite imagery authors: neel ramachandran, jeremy irvin, hao sheng, sonja johnson-yu, ... kemen austin abstract: deforestation is a leading contributor to greenhouse gas emissions globally. understanding the direct drivers of forest loss is essential for developing targeted forest conservation and management policies. however, this data is hard to collect at scale due to the complexity of forest loss drivers and expertise required for accurately identifying them. to address this challenge, we developed a deep learning model called forestnet which uses publicly available satellite imagery to automatically classify the drivers of primary forest loss. we validated forestnet on a test set of expert-annotated forest loss events and showed that forestnet achieved high performance across four major driver classes. we used forestnet to identify these drivers on over 2 million forest loss events in indonesia between 2012 and 2019, with significant improvement in spatial and temporal resolution over previously available data. we found that plantations and smallholder agriculture were the primary direct drivers of deforestation in indonesia during this period, accounting for 64 % of total forest loss. deforestation has decreased steadily since 2012 after increasing steadily from 2001 to 2009 and peaking from 2009 to 2012, trends that we found are primarily due to changes in plantation-driven deforestation. our approach can serve as a general framework for scalably attributing deforestation to specific drivers and can be extended to other regions of interest, providing a flexible and cost-effective way for countries to regularly monitor, understand, and address their unique and dynamic drivers of deforestation. 8. title: china�s nature-based solutions in the global south: evidence from asia, africa, and latin america authors: annah lake zhu, niklas weins, juliet lu, tyler harlan, ... fabiana barbi seleguim abstract: china increasingly engages in environmental diplomacy through south-south cooperation across the developing world. since 2019, the rise of the discourse of nature-based solutions (nbs) within this cooperation has been exponential. coined just over ten years ago, nbs refers to the underexplored potential of leveraging the natural world to address socio-environmental challenges. the concept finds particular resonance in china, where it demonstrates strong parallels with the domestically-pioneered concept of ecological civilization � the ruling paradigm when it comes to all realms of chinese environmental governance. building on the global discourse, nbs has been adapted to the chinese context, creating what some call �chinese-style� nbs that prioritizes large-scale interventions and ecological engineering over grassroots preservation. china�s nbs are not only being pursued domestically, but also increasingly abroad through the country�s belt and road initiative. from southeast and central asia to africa and latin america, this article surveys chinese-led or financed projects that fall under the broad umbrella of nbs. we provide a comparative analysis of these interventions � or the conspicuous lack of such interventions � to show the current status and future prospects for china�s growing sphere of influence when it comes to advancing nbs in the global south. we find that china�s embrace of this concept in environmental diplomacy is directly related to the potential for nbs to serve as a tool for helping the country�s vision of an ecological civilization �go global.� the consonance between the rhetoric of nbs and ecological civilization, combined with the global reach of nbs, provides a powerful platform for taking chinese environmental discourse to the global level. 9. title: regimes of global and national oil palm cultivations from 2001 to 2018 authors: hao yu, dongjie fu, ze yuan, jiasheng tang, ... fenzhen su abstract: oil palm is the dominant global oil crop due to its high productivity and diversified usage in many sectors. since the late 20th century, oil palm cultivations proliferated in southeast asia, west africa, and latin america. however, global market factors, different national and regional policies, and smallholder versus commercial planting regimes in different areas lead to significant differences in economic benefits and environmental problems from deforestation and loss of biodiversity. we investigated changes in global and national distributions against suitability and indices of tree age distribution change for industrial oil palm (iop) and smallholder oil palm (sop). spatial and temporal change analyses show that: i) for most tree ages, the proportion of global oil palm planting in suitable areas was less than 50%, but the impact of temporal regimes, from possible market factors and local policies, on planting structure should not be neglected; ii) central america, south america, and west africa were less suitable for oil palm cultivation compared to southeast asia. while, as two dominant oil palm planting countries, indonesia and malaysia had relatively low planting suitability, with 39.23% of indonesia�s iop, 44.85% of indonesia�s sop, 30.90% of malaysia�s iop and 18.77% of malaysia�s sop in highly and most suitable intervals; iii) there exist clear differences between iop and sop in terms of suitability, planting structure and spatial expansion patterns; iv) hysteresis effect exists between latecomers (countries in west africa and latin america) and forerunner (indonesia and malaysia) in terms of spatial expansion; v) the spatial expansion patterns of oil palm planting centers have obvious scale effects for both iop and sop, with clear inter-country and intra-country differences. this paper reinterprets the global distribution of tree age and spatial expansion pattern and recommends scientific strategies to guide site selection and planting structure that enable oil palm cultivation for sustainable development. 10. title: diversity in global environmental scenario sets authors: henrk carlsen, sara talebian, simona pedde, kasper kok abstract: scenario development and analysis is an important methodological approach in the assessment of global environmental change. scenarios are used to assess climate change and its impacts on societies, economies, and ecosystems, and identify, test, and improve policy responses to manage the negative consequences of a changing environment. evaluation of scenarios, especially global scenarios widely used in the climate research and policy community, is therefore urgently needed. while the quality and usefulness of individual scenarios have been extensively examined through a wide array of criteria, standards for systematic evaluation of scenario sets are only emerging. scenario diversity (i.e., diversity between individual scenarios in a set) has been advanced as a measure to assess the quality of global scenario sets. in this paper, we use scenario diversity analysis, a systematic and transparent quantitative method, to examine six major global scenario sets with regards to scenario set diversity. results show that the assessed scenario sets show relatively good performance with regards to scenario set diversity. however, the use of classic methods for building scenario architectures and the number of scenarios included in a set raise important questions about the potential trade-offs between covering a bigger space of futures possibilities and adding redundancy to the scenario set. 11. title: the substantial impacts of carbon capture and storage technology policies on climate change mitigation pathways in china authors: jing-li fan, wenlong zhou, zixia ding, xian zhang abstract: carbon capture and storage (ccs) technology, considered as a pivotal tool in mitigating climate change within the fossil energy system, particularly in china, has experienced slower development than expected. the exploration of direct incentive policies to facilitate its growth remains relatively underdeveloped. this study developed a hybrid dynamic computable general equilibrium (cge) model to simulate the substantial impacts of ccs incentive policies on china within the context of carbon neutrality target. two potential incentive policies, carbon emission trading system (ets) and 45q tax credit, were simulated, with different sectoral coverage. the results indicate that ccs technologies can reduce carbon emissions by 960 <" 1,604 mtco2 annually by 2060 through the strategic implementation of these incentive policies. the 45q tax credit demonstrates its effectiveness in promoting early-stage research and development (r&d) and demonstration of ccs, while the ets policy facilitates the commercial development of ccs in the later stage of development. by 2060, the implementation of ccs incentive policies could potentially result in 7.7 <" 17.4 % reduction in china s primary energy consumption, 71.2 <" 82.7 % decrease in the carbon price of ets and 5.64 <" 6.59 % increase in the gdp compared with the no-policy scenario. in addition, the sectoral output in various sectors and the welfare of urban and rural households also increase. this paper provides an important reference for the realization of china�s carbon neutrality goal and the model framework can be applied to other countries. 12. title: an actor-centered, scalable land system typology for addressing biodiversity loss in the world�s tropical dry woodlands authors: marie pratzer, patrick meyfroidt, marina antongiovanni, roxana aragon, ... tobias kuemmerle abstract: land use is a key driver of the ongoing biodiversity crisis and therefore also a major opportunity for its mitigation. however, appropriately considering the diversity of land-use actors and activities in conservation assessments and planning is challenging. as a result, top-down conservation policy and planning are often criticized for a lack of contextual nuance widely acknowledged to be required for effective and just conservation action. to address these challenges, we have developed a conceptually consistent, scalable land system typology and demonstrated its usefulness for the world's tropical dry woodlands. our typology identifies key land-use actors and activities that represent typical threats to biodiversity and opportunities for conservation action. we identified land systems in a hierarchical way, with a global level allowing for broad-scale planning and comparative work. nested within it, a regionalized level provides social-ecological specificity and context. we showcase this regionalization for five hotspots of land-use change and biodiversity loss in dry woodlands in argentina, bolivia, mozambique, india, and cambodia. unlike other approaches to present land use, our typology accounts for the complexity of overlapping land uses. this allows, for example, assessment of how conservation measures conflict with other land uses, understanding of the social-ecological co-benefits and trade-offs of area-based conservation, mapping of threats, or targeting area-based and actor-based conservation measures. moreover, our framework enables cross-regional learning by revealing both commonalities and social-ecological differences, as we demonstrate here for the world's tropical dry woodlands. by bridging the gap between global, top-down, and regional, bottom-up initiatives, our framework enables more contextually appropriate sustainability planning across scales and more targeted and social-ecologically nuanced interventions. 13. title: finding tipping points in the global steel sector: a comparison of companies in australia, austria, south korea and the usa authors: raphaela maier, timo gerres, andreas tuerk, franziska mey abstract: the global steel sector is responsible for 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions, highlighting the need for significant changes in production practices and the adoption of low-carbon breakthrough technologies to achieve net-zero emissions. this study was conducted to explore positive tipping points at the company level, taking into account socio-political, economic and industry pressures that initiate the tipping process. the study operationalizes tipping points using the triple embededdness framework, which incorporates indicators from the socio-political and economic environment, as well as the industry regime of companies. an analysis is performed of secondary data from four steel companies: bluescope (australia), posco (south korea), voestalpine (austria), and u.s. steel (usa). the findings indicate that voestalpine is on the verge of reaching a positive tipping point, and posco is also on a promising track. in contrast, both bluescope and u.s. steel are lagging behind. in the tipping process, national policies play a critical role in expediting the transition to low-carbon steel production for frontrunners, while global climate policy has a greater leverage by influencing producers who operate in a less stringent national policy context. additionally, the customer demand for low-carbon steel serves as a driving force for innovation and can incentivize steelmakers to produce low-carbon products. 14. title: increasing single households challenges household decarbonization in japan authors: liqiao huang, yin long, zhiheng chen, yuan li, ... yoshikuni yoshida abstract: in light of societal shifts such as an aging population, delayed marriages, and higher rates of divorce, there's a notable rise in solitary living, affecting society, the economy, and the environment. to understand the implications of these demographic shifts, our research examines the nexus between solo living and its broader social-environmental consequences. using japan, one of the countries with the highest proportion of the elderly, as a reference, we explore the temporal fluctuations, gender-specific variances, and long-term trends in carbon footprints influenced by alterations in consumption behaviors. results indicate that housing energy and food consumption remain the dominant carbon footprint contributors across all demographic sectors. interestingly, single households present higher carbon footprints than non-single households, with those of single females surpassing their male counterparts due to increased household energy use and expenditures on clothing and healthcare. following the demographic shifts, single households are expected to account for approximately 31.1% of japan's emissions from households by 2040, challenging national decarbonization efforts due to their higher per capita emissions. this highlights the imperative for bespoke strategies, especially in resource allocation and sharing, to address the solo living challenge and ensure congruence with japan's sustainability and decarbonization goals. 15. title: �these industries have polluted consciences; we are unable to envision change�: sense of place and lock-in mechanisms in sulcis coal and carbon-intensive region, italy authors: fulvio biddau, valentina rizzoli, paolo cottone, mauro sarrica abstract: european coal and carbon-intensive regions (ccirs) face the intricate challenge of navigating destabilization-reconfiguration pathways, requiring a nuanced understanding of how phase-out intertwines with innovation and lock-in mechanisms. the success of this transformation depends on a multitude of factors, including socio-political, economic, and material conditions, as well as psychosocial and cultural dimensions of place. this study examines how feedback loops between structural factors (i.e., socio-political, socio-economic, and infrastructural) and sense of place can either disrupt or reinforce lock-in mechanisms and path dependency in ccirs. the study focuses on sulcis ccir (sardinia, italy), where extractive and metal industries are deeply ingrained in the region's culture and economy. to reconstruct the trajectory of the ccir and gain in depth understanding of feedback mechanisms of path dependency across time, we triangulate different data sources including policy documents, newspapers, participatory workshops, and interviews with key stakeholders. the findings reveal the profound influence of a sense of place grounded in a shared industrial myth along with associated place meanings, identities, and memories on lock-in mechanisms. positive feedback loops between sense of place and structural factors of lock-in have legitimated the dominance of coal and carbon-intensive industries across time, impeding the recognition of the need for change and obscuring windows of opportunity for low-carbon transformation. following the definite destabilization of coal, dominant place meanings are being actively challenged, while the legacy of sense of place is serving as a guiding frame for shaping the legitimacy and imaginaries of place transformation and defining a just transition pathway. the study discusses the importance of recognizing and addressing the role of sense of place and its interaction with structural factors in perpetuating lock-in to ensure effective deliberate destabilization efforts and navigate a just reconfiguration of ccirs. 16. title: economic factors mediate the impact of drought on farmer suicides in india authors: yoav rothler, david blakeslee, deepak malghan, ram fishman abstract: the occurrence of farmer suicides has come to symbolize what is likely widespread and deep, but often hidden, agrarian distress. while this tragic phenomena has attracted tremendous attention in public discourse, its primary drivers remain poorly understood. in particular, climatic stress is often considered to be one such driver, but the mechanisms through which it triggers suicide remain disputed. here, we provide evidence that factors related to agricultural income mediate the impact of climatic variability on farmer suicides in india. an analysis of temporal variation in suicide occurrence reveals that droughts, which impact farmers� incomes, increase male farmer suicides by 19%, but have much smaller and insignificant impacts on other occupational or demographic groups. moreover, whereas suicides by non-farmers are evenly distributed throughout the year, farmer suicides are concentrated during the agricultural season. these results help shed light on the mechanisms driving some of the most extreme and drastic social impacts of climatic variability and change. 17. title: the educational divide in climate change attitudes: understanding the role of scientific knowledge and subjective social status authors: anne g. hoekstra, kjell noordzij, willem de koster, jeroen van der waal abstract: research has frequently found that less-educated citizens are more skeptical about climate change and show less trust in climate science than their more-educated counterparts. we advance insights on why this educational divide exists by: 1) scrutinizing the relevance of the dominant knowledge-deficit explanation by uniquely using an objective measure of scientific knowledge; and 2) theorizing and empirically testing a novel explanation on the importance of subjective social status. building on recent sociological insights, we theorize that less-educated citizens have a lower subjective social status and feel misrecognized by more-educated citizens, inciting frustration and opposition toward the attitudes and lifestyle of the latter. because belief in and concern about climate change are predominantly embraced by more-educated citizens and have strong status connotations, less-educated citizens� opposition to the lifestyle of more-educated citizens is likely also directed at the issue of climate change. we test hypotheses derived from both approaches by analyzing unique survey data gathered among members of a high-quality panel representative of the dutch population. we focus on two outcome measures: climate change skepticism and distrust in climate science. we find that both the knowledge-deficit approach and the novel explanation involving subjective social status contribute to understanding the educational divide in climate change attitudes, in addition to other approaches covered by control variables such as income and political ideology. our study concludes with a reflection on the theoretical implications of these findings and their practical implications for information campaigns, which our study suggests should be careful not to prime less-educated citizens� perceived lower social standing. 18. title: does creation-oriented culture promote esg activities? evidence from the chinese market authors: quan wen, shipian shao, yaopeng wang, jingke hong, ... li ma abstract: this study investigates the relationship between a creation-oriented culture and environmental, social, and governance activities in chinese listed companies between 2008 and 2022. we conduct a textual analysis of firms� annual reports to quantify the creation-oriented culture and environmental, social, and governance levels. the results reveal that a creation-oriented culture positively affects environmental, social, and governance activities. the findings also show that creation-oriented culture can positively affect environmental, social, and governance activities through the channels of corporate green innovation and chief executive officers� career horizons. the findings of this study have implications for stakeholders and policymakers aiming to enhance environmental, social, and governance activities at the corporate level. 19. title: common property regimes in participatory guarantee systems (pgs): sharing responsibility in the collective management of organic labels authors: philippe ninnin, sylvaine lemeilleur abstract: participatory guarantee systems (pgs) are certification schemes, which offer a guarantee that labelled products comply with a related quality standard. they differ from the prevailing third-party certification (tpc) because in a pgs, food system stakeholders are involved in the decision to award a label. with tpc, a single certification body takes the decision and certification costs may be too high to be borne by smallholder producers. according to pgs guidelines (ifoam, 2019), shared rights to actively contribute to the inspections, participate in exclusion decisions for certification and to manage the contents of the standard are key features of a pgs. producers have significantly more rights on the label in a pgs than in tpc. each pgs has a specific governance structure, which reflects how they have adapted to their respective institutional environments. in this paper, we compare the distribution of power in tpc for the european organic label and four pgs, nature & progr�s (n&p) in france; ecovida agroecology network (ean) in brazil; certified naturally grown (cng) in the us; and kilimo hai (kh) in tanzania. drawing on the bundle of rights concept developed by schlager and ostrom (1992), we discuss how the common property regimes in pgs have potential for bridging the gap between organic labels and their users. we describe each governance structure, by drawing on data from in-depth interviews with key informants and on the analysis of framework documents and regulatory texts specific to each initiative. we show that the distribution of stakeholders� rights varies considerably between the different pgs. similar to the commons, these differences can impact the label�s legitimacy, the pgs members� involvement and mobilization, and the effectiveness of the rules relating to implementation and compliance. 20. title: divergent agricultural development pathways across farm and landscape scales in europe: implications for sustainability and farmer satisfaction authors: julian helfenstein, samuel hepner, amelie kreuzer, gregor achermann, ... felix herzog abstract: current agricultural practices in europe are increasingly aggravating societal and environmental safety concerns. this creates social and regulatory pressures on farmers, which can lead to declining material and social status of farmers, farmer discontent, and anti-regulation protests. these tensions are rooted in conflicting value systems for agricultural development, which can range from productivist pathways (i.e. valuing production above all else) to increasing multifunctionality pathways (i.e. valuing agriculture for its contribution to multiple economic, environmental and societal needs). it is largely unknown to what degree individual farms and agricultural landscapes are transitioning towards increasing productivism or multifunctionality in practice. here, we mapped landscape changes and interviewed farmers (n = 274) to examine the diversity of agricultural development pathways in 17 study sites across europe over the last 20 years (2000�2020). we also assessed the associations between the development pathways and farmers� perceptions of socio-economic outcomes, namely job satisfaction, societal valuation, and economic performance. farm-level development was largely aligned with productivist pathways, while landscape-level changes aligned more closely with an increasing multifunctionality pathway. farmers on pathways of increasing multifunctionality did not perceive improved outcomes on livelihood indicators as compared to productivist farmers. furthermore, farms on increasing multifunctionality pathways were concentrated in sites with very high management intensities that face strong pressure from environmental regulations, as well as low-intensity, mountainous sites, where opportunities for intensification are limited. these results suggest that current pathways that increase multifunctionality arise mostly by necessity. successful agricultural transformation will therefore require policy to create enabling environments that provide socioeconomic benefits for farmers to increase multifunctionality, and a civil society and market conditions that value sustainable agriculture. 21. title: warming-and-wetting trend over the china�s drylands: observational evidence and future projection authors: boyang li, dongwei liu, entao yu, lixin wang abstract: a recent �warming-and-wetting� trend over china�s drylands has raised widespread attention in the scientific community. based on the observations and model projections of temperature and precipitation, this study shows that the warming and regional wetting trend in china�s drylands is 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