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volume 42, issue 1, winter 2023
1. title: criminal justice involvement, self-employment, and barriers in recent public policy
authors: keith finlay, michael mueller-smith, brittany street
abstract: this study provides the first empirical evidence on the extent of self-employment within the u.s. justice-involved population. using linked tax return and criminal justice administrative records system data, we find that 28 percent of individuals with criminal records are self-employed. justice-involved individuals are 22 percent more likely to rely solely on self-employment. the paycheck protection program, passed to support small business during the covid-19 pandemic, initially disqualified those with a broad range of criminal histories. we find that close to 3 percent of recent sole proprietors had observable ppp disqualifying events based on initial eligibility criteria, with a disparate impact on black and hispanic business owners.
2. title: reducing sexual orientation discrimination: experimental evidence from basic information treatments
authors: cevat giray aksoy, christopher s. carpenter, ralph de haas, mathias dolls, lisa windsteiger
abstract: we study basic information treatments regarding sexual orientation using randomized experiments in three countries with strong and widespread anti-gay attitudes: serbia, turkey, and ukraine. participants who received information about the economic costs to society of sexual orientation discrimination were significantly more likely than those in a control group to support equal employment opportunities based on sexual orientation. information that the world health organization (who) does not regard homosexuality as a mental illness increased social acceptance of sexual minorities, but only for those who reported trust in the who. our results have important implications for policymakers aiming to expand the rights of lesbian, gay, and bisexual people worldwide.
3. title: accountability, test prep incentives, and the design of math and english exams
authors: evan riehl, meredith welch
abstract: we examine how incentives for test prep varied between math and english language arts (ela) on u.s. state accountability exams. we collected data on exam structure for grade 3 to 8 tests in six states that are the setting for most u.s. research in literatures where accountability matters. we show that math exams typically measured ability more precisely for students on the margin of achieving proficiency. this gave educators an incentive to spend more time preparing students for math tests than for ela tests, consistent with the common finding of larger math effects in the literature.
4. title: insurance subsidies, the affordable care act, and financial stability
authors: samuel dodini
abstract: this paper measures the effects of subsidies in the affordable care act on adverse financial outcomes using administrative tax data and credit data on financial outcomes. using a difference-in-differences design with propensity score reweighting, i find that at $100 per capita, aca premium tax credits and cost-sharing reduction subsidies reduced consumer bankruptcies and severe auto delinquency by 8 percent and 7 percent, respectively, and substantially reduced right-tail delinquent debt and third-party collections. the value of recipients� risk protection against medical debt payments amounts to approximately 16 to 21 percent of the cash costs of the subsidies, while the subsidies provided substantial indirect transfers to external parties.
5. title: public health insurance and medical spending: the incidence of the aca medicaid expansion
authors: cortnie shupe
abstract: this paper examines the incidence of the cost burden associated with expanding public health insurance to low-income adults in the context of the affordable care act. using data from the medical expenditures panel survey (meps), i exploit exogenous variation in medicaid eligibility rules across states, income groups and time. i find that public insurance eligibility reduced mean out-of-pocket spending by 19.6 percent among targeted households, but it did not causally increase total expenditures among beneficiaries. rather, medicaid expansion shifted the burden of payment from eligible households and private insurance (21.5 percent reduction) to taxpayers in the form of public insurance (46.6 percent increase). the efficiency of these public funds can be summarized by a mean marginal value of public funds of 0.70 in the full sample, 0.99 among households with at least one pre-existing condition, and 1.26 in states with an above-median number of public hospitals.
6. title: vocational rehabilitation services and labor market outcomes for transition-age youth with disabilities in maine
authors: michelle yin, garima siwach, dajun lin
abstract: using administrative data from maine to quantify the effect of vocational rehabilitation (vr) services on employment outcomes for transition-age youth with disabilities, we exploited the variation in vr counselors� propensity to develop individualized plans for employment (ipes) for vr youth as an instrument for service receipt. we found that among the estimated 36 percent of vr clients on the margin of service receipt, having an ipe implemented increases quarterly employment rate by 15.4 percentage points and quarterly earnings by $1,442 (2018 dollars). we found heterogeneous program effects with individuals 18 or younger benefiting significantly more than those older than age 18 at the time of vr application. we estimate the annual real rate of return to be 10.2 percent for two years after vr case closure.
7. title: universal cash transfers and labor market outcomes
authors: andrew bibler, mouhcine guettabi, matthew n. reimer
abstract: one major criticism of universal basic income is that unconditional cash transfers discourage recipients from working. evidence to date has largely relied on targeted and/or conditional transfer programs. however, it is difficult to draw conclusions from such programs because universal transfers may induce a positive demand shock by distributing cash to a large portion of the population, which may in turn offset any negative labor supply responses. we estimate the causal effects of universal cash transfers on short-run labor market activity by exploiting the timing and variation in size of a long-running unconditional and universal transfer: alaska's permanent fund dividend. we find evidence of both a positive labor demand and negative labor supply response to the transfers. small negative effects on the number of hours worked are found for women, especially those with young children. in contrast, we find an increase in the probability of employment for males in the months following the distribution. altogether, a $1,000 increase in the per-person disbursement leads to a 0.8 percent labor market contraction on an annual basis.
8. title: consequences of teenage childbearing on child outcomes in the united states
authors: devon gorry
abstract: children of teen mothers have worse academic, labor market, and behavioral outcomes in the united states, but it is not clear whether these poor outcomes are caused by having a young mother or driven by selection into teen motherhood. understanding the reasoning behind poor child outcomes is important for designing effective policies to improve child trajectories. simple correlations using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 (nlsy79) and the nlsy79 children and young adults (nlsy79cy) confirm that outcomes for children of teenage mothers are worse relative to children of older mothers. these negative relationships persist after controlling for background variables or including family fixed effects, though the magnitudes are attenuated. however, these approaches fail to fully account for selection into teen motherhood. to overcome selection, i employ an empirical strategy that relies on miscarriages to put bounds on the causal effects of teen childbearing. these bounds show that teen childbearing among mothers who choose to give birth does not cause adverse outcomes for children.
9. title: child care in the united states: markets, policy, and evidence
authors: chris m. herbst
abstract: participation in non-parental child care arrangements is now the norm for preschool-age children in the u.s. however, child care services are becoming increasingly expensive for many families, and quality is highly uneven across providers and sectors, raising questions about the impact of child care costs and quality on parental employment and child development. the u.s. policy landscape is dominated by three policies that subsidize costs for low-income families or attempt to improve the safety and quality of providers: the child care and development fund, regulations, and quality rating and improvement systems. in this paper, i provide a thorough review of the evidence on each policy, focusing on how they influence a wide range of family and provider outcomes. the paper begins with a detailed description of the structure and functioning of the child care market, using the most up-to-date data on families� utilization of care services and provider characteristics. i then draw on a diverse set of studies across multiple fields to summarize the evidence on the impact of child care policy. in the final section of the paper, i offer recommendations for future research in each policy area.
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10. title: rebooting policy analysis: strengthening the foundation, expanding the scope, by peter linquiti, thousand oaks, ca: sage cq press, 2023, 589 pp., $110 (us) paperback.
authors: karen j. baehler
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