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��ࡱ�>�� r��bjbj�)�)2��c�g�c�g� ��66��8��$�kq��p�p�p�p�p�p�p$qs�vf�p-��p��4%q��p��p��pd��k��p��p;q0kq�mv4rmv��/mv�fmx��p�p�kq��mv6b�: global environmental change volume 80, issue 3, may 2023 1. title: creating adaptive social-ecological fit: the role of regional actors in the governance of sea-level rise adaptation in san francisco bay authors: francesca pia vantaggiato, mark lubell, michelle hummel, aaron c.h. chow, alain tcheukam siwe abstract: sea level rise is one of the most pressing climate adaptation issues around the world. often, coastal communities are interdependent in their exposure to sea level rise � if one builds a seawall, it will push water to another � and would benefit from a coordinated adaptive response. the literature on social-ecological systems (ses) calls for actors placed at higher levels of governance (e.g. regional government in a metropolitan area) to improve coordination between local managers by serving as brokers. however, we lack empirical insight on how higher-level actors might improve coordination in practice, and theoretical development on the implications of their intermediation. to address these gaps, we study the case of adaptation to sea level rise in the san francisco bay area. we build a social-ecological network of social actors and shoreline segments using original survey data and simulated scenarios of tidal and traffic interdependencies between shoreline segments. we perform a frequency analysis of network motifs that operationalize social-ecological �fit� in the context of the bay area. we find that regional actors and non-governmental organizations increase social-ecological fit by providing intermediation between actors who work on different shoreline segments, whether interdependent or not. this shows that these actors provide adaptive social-ecological fit, future-proofing the bay area to current and future climate adaptation challenges. 2. title: beyond the boom-bust cycle: an interdisciplinary framework for analysing crop booms authors: jean-christophe castella, juliet lu, cecilie friis, thilde bech bruun, ... isabelle vagneron abstract: the expansion of commercial agriculture is one of the primary drivers of livelihood and land-use changes in the world. globalisation and other factors have intensified this expansion to the point where booms in single cash crops overtake entire regions before going bust, a pattern that is particularly pervasive in resource frontiers. using case studies across the mekong region, a place which serves as a harbinger for crop booms globally, we propose a new analytical framework for understanding and governing crop booms. we combine multiple theoretical approaches to study crop booms and draw on insights from case study work conducted across temporal and spatial scales. the framework consists of three components: 1) the nested nature of crop boom-bust trajectories, 2) the cyclical spatial and temporal patterns of crop booms, and 3) the variegated pathways and impacts of agrarian change. the framework presents new insights into the processes of agricultural intensification in frontier spaces. as such, it facilitates a better understanding of the drivers, characteristics and impacts of crop booms for researchers and decision-makers alike with the intention of supporting efforts to develop more sustainable pathways in the region and beyond. 3. title: plastic pollution and the open burning of plastic wastes authors: gauri pathak, mark nichter, anita hardon, eileen moyer, ... jessica love abstract: the open burning of plastic wastes is a practice that is highly prevalent across the globe, toxic to human and environmental health, and a critical�but often overlooked�aspect of plastic pollution. most of the countries where such burning is widespread have laws and policies in place against it; open burning continues nevertheless. in this article, using data from ethnographic fieldwork in urban and rural sites in india, indonesia, the philippines, and zambia, we examine local practices of open burning and investigate why regulations to tackle it have proven largely ineffective. adopting a harm reduction approach, we then suggest preliminary measures to mitigate the health risks of open burning by targeting those plastics and packaging types that are most toxic when burned. 4. title: weapons of the vulnerable? a review of popular resistance to climate adaptation authors: ebba brink, ana maria vargas falla, emily boyd abstract: climate adaptation is not a neutral or apolitical process, but one that ignites social resistance. government responses to risks of floods, droughts, or hurricanes � even those using a language of participation � might follow historical development pathways, strive to maintain the status quo, and directly or indirectly serve elite interests. little attention has been paid to how people defy or resist top-down adaptation processes, overtly or covertly, in particular cultural, historical, and legal contexts. drawing on sociological thought on popular resistance, this paper systematises research on people�s resistance to climate adaptation by scrutinising the sites, repertoires, and consequences of such resistance. we identified overt and covert resistance in 56 scientific adaptation articles, which concentrated on 5 �sites� of resistance: rural livelihoods, urban informal settlements, islands, first nations, and institutional landscapes. the findings imply that resistance to adaptation occurs globally, and not least in the context of relocation processes and participatory adaptation. we show how a resistance lens can help understand contemporary political behaviours, shed light on dynamic and compound vulnerability, and�unlock� more context-sensitive and even transformative adaptation. meanwhile, resistance and popular movements are not only progressive, and there might be conceptual barriers to moving from resistance to transformation or reconciling resistance with actions by or with the state. 5. title: using publicly available remote sensing products to evaluate redd projects in brazil authors: gabriela demarchi, julie subervie, thibault catry, isabelle tritsch abstract: ensuring the perpetuity and improvement of redd initiatives requires rigorous impact evaluation of their effectiveness in curbing deforestation. today, a number of global and regional remote sensing (rs) products that detect changes in forest cover are publicly available. in this study, we assess the suitability of using these datasets to evaluate the impact of local redd projects targeting smallholders in the brazilian amazonb] firstly, we reconstruct the forest loss of 21,492 farms located in the transamazonian region for the period 2008 to 2018, using data from two rs products: global forest change (gfc) and the amazon deforestation monitoring project (prodes). secondly, we evaluate the consistency between these two data sources and find that the deforestation estimates at the farm level vary considerably between datasets. despite this difference, using microeconometric techniques that use pre-treatment outcomes to construct counter-factual patterns of redd program participants, we estimate that about two hectares, or about four percent of the forest area, were saved on average on each of the 350 participating farms during the first years of the program, regardless of the data-source used. moreover, we find that deforestation decreased on plots surrounding participating farms during the very first years of the program, suggesting that the program may have had a positive effect on neighboring farms as well. finally, we show that participants returned to their business-as-usual pattern of clearing one to three hectares per year at the end of the program. the environmental gain generated by the program, however, was not offset by any catch-up behavior, as the two hectares saved on each farm before 2017 were not cleared in 2018. by calculating the monetary gain of the delayed carbon dioxide emissions, we find that the program�s benefits were ultimately greater than its costs. 6. title: climate change and coastal megacities: adapting through mobility authors: susan s. ekoh, lemir teron, idowu ajibade abstract: climate change poses threats to individuals, communities, and cities globally. global conversations and scholarly debates have explored ways people adapt to the impacts of climate change including through migration and relocation. this study uses lagos, nigeria as a case study to examine the relationship between flooding events, migration intentions as a preferred adaptation, and the destination choices for affected residents. the study draws on a mixed-methods approach which involved a survey of 352 residents and semi-structured interviews with 21 residents. we use a capability approach to analyze mobility decisions following major or repetitive flood events. we found that the majority of affected residents are willing to migrate but the ability to do so is constrained by economic, social, and political factors leading to involuntary immobility. furthermore, intra-city relocation is preferred to migration to other states in nigeria or internationally. these findings challenge popular global south-north migration narratives. indeed, some residents welcome government-supported relocation plans but others remain skeptical due to lack of trust. community-based relocation may therefore be preferred by some lagosians. overall, this study contributes a nuanced understanding of mobility intentions in response to climate-induced flooding in one of the world�s largest coastal cities. 7. title: what happens after climate change adaptation projects end: a community-based approach to ex-post assessment of adaptation projects authors: megan mills-novoa abstract: over the last decade, hundreds of climate change adaptation projects have been funded and implemented. despite the importance of these first-generation adaptation projects for establishing funders and implementors� �best practices,� very little is known about how early adaptation projects have endured, to what ends, and for whom. in this article, i propose a community-based methodology for ex-post assessment of climate change adaptation projects. this methodology contributes to recognitional justice by asking the individuals and collectives tasked with sustaining adaptation initiatives to define adaptation success and what criteria for success should be assessed. i apply this subjective assessment approach in 10 communities across ecuador that participated in an internationally funded adaptation project that concluded in 2015. my analysis draws together participatory mapping, walking interviews with local leaders, participant observation, and surveys with former project participants. the results highlight that even adaptation projects that were deemed highly successful at their closure have uncertain futures. i find that the sustainability mechanisms that were envisioned by project implementors have not functioned, and communities are shouldering the burden of reviving failing adaptation interventions. these findings highlight that the current model of episodic funding for climate change adaptation projects and evaluation processes needs to be revisited to acknowledge the long-term challenges faced by communities. this analysis also calls attention to the importance of ex-post assessment for adaptation projects and the potential of subjective assessment approaches for building more ontological and epistemological pluralism in understandings of successful climate change adaptation. 8. title: finance for fossils � the role of public financing in expanding petrochemicals authors: jakob skovgaard, guy finkill, fredric bauer, max �hman, tobias dan nielsen abstract: the petrochemicals industry (mainly plastics and fertilizer production) is expanding, despite increasing attention to the environmental impact of petrochemicals. in our paper, we explore the role public finance plays in the petrochemicals industry. we do so by mapping the public and private financial flows into large-scale petrochemical projects for the decade 2010�20 and discuss the role of public financial institutions for the development of the industry globally. secondly, we provide a detailed analysis of the roles international and national public finance has played in enabling two prominent petrochemical projects: namely the sadara plant in saudi arabia and the surgil plant in uzbekistan. the cases are illustrative of the dynamics of state interest and involvement in fossil fuel producing countries as well as of lending and guarantees from foreign export credit agencies (ecas) and development finance institutions, and how such public finance plays an important role in leveraging private finance. our findings show how public finance for petrochemicals is highly globalized and to a large degree originates in developed countries. as petrochemical industrial infrastructures are designed to last decades, the public finance thus strongly contributes to the carbon lock-in of the sector and limits the possibilities for low-carbon investments needed to comply with the un paris agreement. 9. title: impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on fire carbon emissions in the future: sustainable economic development might decrease future emissions authors: chae yeon park, kiyoshi takahashi, fang li, junya takakura, ... wim thiery abstract: fires and their associated carbon and air pollutant emissions have a broad range of environmental and societal impacts, including negative effects on human health, damage to terrestrial ecosystems, and indirect effects that promote climate change. previous studies investigated future carbon emissions from the perspective of response to climate change and population growth, but the compound effects of other factors like economic development and land use change are not yet well known. we explored fire carbon emissions throughout the 21st century by changing five factors (meteorology, biomass, land use, population density, and gross domestic product [gdp] per capita). compared to the historical period (2006�2015), global future fire carbon emissions decreased, mainly caused by an increase in gdp per capita, which leads to improvement in fire management and capitalized agriculture. we found that the meteorological factor has a strong individual effect under higher warming cases. fires in boreal forests were particularly expected to increase because of an increase in fuel dryness. our research should help climate change researchers consider fire-carbon interactions. incorporating future spatial changes under diverse scenarios will be helpful to develop national mitigation and adaptation plans. 10. title: thirty years on: planetary climate planning and the intergovernmental negotiating committee authors: benjamin kaplan weinger abstract: on the occasion of the thirtieth anniversary of the united nations framework convention on climate change, this principal supra-national institution remains paramount to the project of planetary climate planning and governance. reflections on this anniversary should serve to recall the contestations through which this foundational institution was formed, and the delegate dynamics that continue to be reproduced in its wake. the contentious debates and political dynamics that afflicted the intergovernmental negotiating committee tasked with crafting the framework convention on climate change, as well as dissension in the periphery, remain as relevant today as they were three decades ago. reprising these dynamics through detailed historical and archival analysis, this article excavates the negotiations of the 1992 framework convention on climate change by the intergovernmental negotiating committee, which met in 5 sessions during 1991�1992. the aim is to identify key fault-lines and conflicts in the lead-up to the finalization of the 1992 convention, in order to demonstrate whose epistemic and normative commitments came to be reflected in the final outcome and to show how the legacy of this process endures to date. i seek to render visible actors and proposals peripheralized in the formation of planetary climate governance to extrapolate normative boundaries and proffer heterodox lessons from the margins. 11. title: institutional analysis of actors involved in the governance of innovative contracts for agri-environmental and climate schemes authors: claudia sattler, rena barghusen, birte bredemeier, c�line dutilly, katrin prager abstract: in this study, we used institutional analysis to investigate the design of innovative contracts for agri-environmental and climate schemes. the aim of such contracts is to better incentivize farmers for the provision of environmental public goods in comparison to current �mainstream� contracts. for the analysis, we differentiated four contract types: result-based, collective, land tenure, and value chain contracts. to represent each type in the analysis, we selected 19 case examples from six european countries. cases were identified through a mix of methods, combining literature review, web search, and expert consultation. after a structured data collection based on ostrom�s institutional analysis and development (iad) framework, we focused our analysis on the involved actors and their roles in contract governance. our results highlight the great diversity of public, private, and civil actors involved from the local, regional, national or international governance level, each performing one or several critical roles in contract governance. we found that it is highly context-dependent which actors assume certain roles. we also discuss how provision of environmental public goods through the contracts might potentially be impacted by certain roles and their assignment to specific actors. 12. title: transformative potential in sustainable development goals engagement: experience from local governance in australia authors: dianty ningrum, rob raven, shirin malekpour, enayat a. moallemi, brett a. bryan abstract: localising the sustainable development goals (sdgs) is often associated with the act of localising goals, targets and indicators, as well as the activities to measure and monitor progress. however, local communities worldwide are starting to engage with the sdgs by other means, for example, by incorporating the sdgs into local governance. in these efforts to make the sdgs part of an existing local governance process, which we call sdg engagement, the sdgs can be valued differently. they can be valued for their potential to support a widespread and fundamental change in society (the sdg transformative potential) or for their moderate addition to ongoing practices and activities (the sdg conventional value). currently, how local governments can engage with the sdgs in different local governance activities is underexplored. this study introduces eight modes through which local governments can engage with the sdgs in local governance and discuss the unique transformative potential of those engagements via synthesising knowledge across 14 empirical studies of local communities in australia. building on the findings of this study, we propose a framework to aid sdg engagement in local governance activities, highlighting the transformative potential of the engagements. the study highlights the need for future explorations on the opportunities to enact a deliberate and more ambitious transformation driven by governance institutions. 13. title: deforestation in the brazilian amazon could be halved by scaling up the implementation of zero-deforestation cattle commitments authors: samuel a. levy, federico cammelli, jacob munger, holly k. gibbs, rachael d. garrett abstract: deforestation for agriculture is a key threat to global carbon stocks, biodiversity, and indigenous ways of life. in the absence of strong territorial governance, zero-deforestation commitments (zdcs), corporate policies to decouple food production from deforestation, remain a central tool to combat this issue. yet evidence on their effectiveness remains mixed and the mechanisms limiting effectiveness are poorly understood. to advance understanding of zdcs� potential at reducing deforestation, we developed the first spatially explicit estimates of farmers� exposure to zdc companies in the brazilian amazon cattle sector. exposure was measured by determining the market share of zdc firms from the first full year of zdc adoption in 2010 until 2018. our analysis evaluated how variation in this exposure influenced deforestation. we found the g4 agreement, the most widespread and strongly implemented cattle zdc, reduced cattle-driven deforestation by 7,000 � 4,000 km2 (15 � 8%) between 2010 and 2018. additionally, had all firms adopted and implemented an effective zdc, cattle-driven deforestation could have dropped by 24,000 � 13,000 km2 (51 � 28%). these results for the world�s principal deforestation hotspot suggests supply chain policies can substantially reduce deforestation. however, their effectiveness is contingent on widespread adoption and rigorous implementation, both of which are currently insufficient to prevent large scale deforestation. increased adoption and implementation could be incentivized through greater pressure from the brazilian government and import countries. 14. title: spinning in circles? a systematic review on the role of theory in social vulnerability, resilience and adaptation research authors: christian kuhlicke, mariana madruga de brito, bartosz bartkowski, wouter botzen, ... samuel rufat abstract: an increasing number of publications focus on social vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation (svra) towards natural hazards and climate change. despite this proliferation of research, a systematic understanding of how these studies are theoretically grounded is lacking. here, we systematically reviewed 4432 articles that address svra in various disciplinary fields (e.g. psychology, sociology, geography, mathematics) for various hazards, including floods, droughts, landslides, storm surges, wildfires, tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcano eruptions. we focus on the extent to which these studies explicate the frameworks, theoretical constructs or theories they rely on. surprisingly, we found that about 90% of the reviewed studies do not explicitly refer to a theoretical underpinning. overall, theories focusing on individuals� svra were more frequently used than those focusing on systems, society, groups, and networks. moreover, the uptake of theories varied according to the hazard investigated and field of knowledge, being more frequent in wildfire and flood studies and articles published in social science journals. based on our analysis, we propose a reflexive handling of theories to foster more transparent, comparable, and robust empirical research on svra. 15. title: constructing the adaptation economy: climate resilient development and the economization of vulnerability authors: erin friedman abstract: climate resilient development is emerging as a global policy strategy that integrates climate adaptation and mitigation into sustainable development decisions. for the caribbean small island developing state (sids) of antigua and barbuda, the national government is pursuing climate resilient development through multilateral climate funds to protect economic growth from climate and weather-related disasters. critical adaptation literature argues that interpreting climate vulnerability through an economic growth lens prioritizes economic solutions over other development concerns, which can further the uneven distribution of climate vulnerability and risk. despite revealing the consequences of market-based climate actions, research has yet to fully understand the economization of vulnerability, which describes the political techniques that render and reconfigure vulnerability in calculated ways. by tracing the discursive interactions between multilateral climate financial institutions and the antigua and barbuda national government, this paper empirically examines how vulnerability is economized through climate resilient development. findings identify the construction of �adaptation economies� in watershed areas, which are economies that can capitalize upon climate challenges within areas of highest vulnerability through fee-for-climate services. the results illustrate that economic growth rationalities characterize climate vulnerability problematizations, which incentivize solutions that enforce the economic development of areas with the highest disaster impacts. based on these findings, this study emphasizes a need to critically evaluate national actor efforts to re-organize development under climate financing rationales, and its vulnerability-inducing effects. 16. title: the climate change research that makes the front page: is it fit to engage societal action? authors: marie-elodie perga, oriane sarrasin, julia steinberger, stuart n. lane, fabrizio butera abstract: by growing awareness for and interest in climate change, media coverage enlarges the window of opportunity by which research can engage individuals and collectives in climate actions. however, we question whether the climate change research that gets mediatized is fit for this challenge. from a survey of the 51,230 scientific articles published in 2020 on climate change, we show that the news media preferentially publicizes research outputs found in multidisciplinary journals and journals perceived as top-tier. an in-depth analysis of the content of the top-100 mediatized papers, in comparison to a random subset, reveals that news media showcases a narrow and limited facet of climate change knowledge (i.e., natural science and health). news media selectivity reduces climate change research to the role of a sentinel and whistleblower for the large-scale, observed, or end-of-century consequences of climate change for natural earth system components. the social, economic, technological, and energy aspects of climate change are curtailed through mediatization, as well as local and short-term scales of processes and solutions. reviewing the social psychological mechanisms that underlie behavioral change, we challenge the current criteria used to judge newsworthiness and argue that the consequent mediatization of climate change research fails to breed real society engagement in actions. a transformative agenda for the mediatization of climate change research implies aligning newsworthiness with news effectiveness, i.e., addressing the extent to which communication is effective in presenting research that is likely to produce behavioral change. 17. title: assisted tree migration can reduce but not avert the decline of forest ecosystem services in europe authors: achille mauri, marco girardello, giovanni forzieri, federica manca, ... giovanni strona abstract: european forests are facing multiple natural and anthropogenic pressures that are expected to become more severe in the next decades. tree diversity is projected to decline in many areas across the continent. how this will affect the provision of forest services remains an open question, whose answer depends, among others, on the practical and theoretical challenges of incorporating assisted migration into climate adaptation strategies. here, we tackle the issue by combining a large dataset of tree species occurrences, future climatic projections, and data on tree functional traits and tree-specific forest services into a novel modelling framework. we estimate that, by the end of the century and under a natural dispersal scenario, the provision of forest services would decrease on average by 15% in europe (for rcp 4.5; 23% for rcp 8.5), and up to 52% (70% for rcp 8.5) in the mediterranean. to explore if and how management could reduce the projected losses, we simulated a suite of alternative assisted migration strategies aimed at identifying, for each locality, the tree species communities offering the best compromise in terms of resilience to climate change and delivery of specific combinations of ecosystem services. such strategies could reduce losses of services by 10% (15%) on average in europe, and even increase service availability in the alpine and boreal regions but not in the mediterranean, where losses will remain as high as 33% (54% for rcp 8.5). our findings highlight how science-driven management strategies could be vital to reduce an otherwise dramatic, european-wide decline of forest services. our results are qualitatively robust to different assumptions on future carbon emissions and related climate trajectories. that is, our simulated assisted migration strategies identify similar tree species communities under different pathways (rcp 4.5 vs rcp 8.5). this makes our approach a powerful tool for forest management, as it generates advice that is valid regardless of whether, and to what extent, human society will steer away from business-as-usual emission trajectories. 18. title: the slippery slopes of climate engineering research authors: aaron tang abstract: climate engineering research attracts slippery slope concerns � the idea that initial research will inevitably lead to inappropriate deployment. some have dismissed it as an unrealistic, unproductive critique. however, extant climate engineering discussions of the slippery slope discuss an unorganised set of different causal mechanisms with little detail. these range from technological cost reduction, to the creation of special interest lobby groups, to normalisation across society and policymakers. dismissing the slippery slope may be premature if its causal nature is unclear, especially given the potentially high impacts and controversy of global climate engineering deployment. disaggregating and clarifying the slippery slope can reduce unnecessary ambiguity, promote productive debate, and highlight risks that require further attention. drawing on previous slippery slope literature and mechanisms of change from range of disciplines, this paper creates a typology of slippery slopes for application to stratospheric aerosol injection and other emerging technologies. initial research can lead to deployment by 1) sparking price-performance improvements and sunk cost biases, 2) contributing to normalisation and legitimisation, 3) altering power structures, 4) sparking hype, and 5) incrementally progressing development. these feedback loops may currently seem unlikely, but unforeseen dynamics could still trigger rapid development and implementation of stratospheric aerosol injection. conversely, there is no guarantee one of these slippery slopes will occur. the point is that they could � the future is too uncertain to fully dismiss non-linear change, particularly for high impact and accessible technologies like stratospheric aerosol injection. this can provide direction and clarity for effective technology governance and slippery slope discussion. furthermore, this typology differentiates the slippery slope from lock-in and highlights their interaction points. slippery slope dynamics are processes that can (but are not guaranteed to) lead to different types of lock-in. lock-in is when a technology is entrenched in existing sociotechnical systems. given the risks of unchecked undesired lock-in, lock-in is a state to be encouraged instead of avoided. 19. title: investigating the relationship between growing season quality and childbearing goals authors: nina brooks, kathryn grace, devon kristiansen, shraddhanand shukla, molly e. brown abstract: agricultural production and household food security are hypothesized to play a critical role connecting climate change to downstream effects on women�s health, especially in communities dependent on rainfed agriculture. seasonal variability in agriculture strains food and income resources and makes it a challenging time for households to manage a pregnancy or afford a new child. yet, there are few direct assessments of the role locally varying agricultural quality plays on women�s health, especially reproductive health. in this paper we build on and integrate ideas from past studies focused on climate change and growing season quality in low-income countries with those on reproductive health to examine how variation in local seasonal agricultural quality relates to childbearing goals and family planning use in three countries in sub-saharan africa: burkina faso, kenya, and uganda. we use rich, spatially referenced data from the performance monitoring for action (pma) individual surveys with detailed information on childbearing preferences and family planning decisions. building on recent advances in remote monitoring of seasonal agriculture, we construct multiple vegetation measures capturing different dimensions of growing season conditions across varying time frames. results for the kenya sample indicate that if the recent growing season is better a woman is more likely to want a child in the future. in uganda, when the growing season conditions are better, women prefer to shorten the time until their next birth and are also more likely to discontinue using family planning. additional analyses reveal the importance of education and birth spacing in moderating these findings. overall, our findings suggest that, in some settings, women strategically respond to growing season conditions by adjusting fertility aspirations or family planning use. this study also highlights the importance of operationalizing agriculture in nuanced ways that align with women�s lives to better understand how women are impacted by and respond to seasonal climate conditions. 20. title: the carbon cost of agricultural production in the global land rush authors: chuan liao, kerstin nolte, daniel g. brown, jann lay, arun agrawal abstract: increases in the number of large-scale land transactions (lslts), commonly known as �land grabbing� or �global land rush,� have occurred throughout the lower- and middle-income world over the past two decades. despite substantial and continuing concerns about the negative socio-environmental impacts of lslts, trade-off analysis on boosting crop yield and minimizing climate-related effects remains limited. our study makes use of a global dataset on lslts for agricultural production to estimate potential carbon emissions based on different scenarios of land cover change and fertilizer use, as well as potential value of agricultural production on transacted land. we show that, if fully implemented on <" 38 m ha of transacted land, 2.51 gtc will be emitted during land conversion, with another 24.2 mtc/year emitted from fertilizer use, assuming farming technology of investors� origin is adopted on transacted land. comparison of different combinations of forest protection policies and agricultural intensification levels reveals that enforcing strict deforestation regulation while promoting fertilizer use rate improves the carbon efficiency of agricultural production. additionally, positive spillovers of investors� farming technology on existing arable lands of host countries can potentially double their crop yield. our analyses thus suggest that fostering agricultural intensification and technology spillovers under strict regulation on land allocation to investors to protect forests would allow for boosting agricultural yield while minimizing carbon emissions. 21. title: direct and mediated impacts of social norms on pro-environmental behavior authors: marvin helferich, john th�gersen, magnus bergquist abstract: the social norm-based intervention is a frequently used tool for encouraging pro-environmental behavior. in designing effective interventions, however, both practitioners and researchers need more knowledge about the relationships between different norm constructs and pro-environmental behavior. in this study, we meta-analyze the predictive strength of injunctive, descriptive, and personal norms using meta-analytical structural equation modeling (masem). data are extracted from 572 studies reported in 534 articles across 56 countries with a total sample size of n = 312,127. we find that internalized (i.e., personal) norms are consistently the strongest predictor of pro-environmental behavior and that personal norms mediate most of the impacts of injunctive and descriptive norms. both injunctive and descriptive norms predict pro-environmental behavior, uniquely and with similar strengths. we find no significant moderations of collectivism or behavioral cost on the predictive strength of social norms on pro-environmental behavior. #%-.03689:;<e��ʻʻʩ��wobbtf9thj�5�ojqj^jo(h� �h� �5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h@ t5�cjojqj^jajh 2e5�cjojqj^jaj#hv�hv�5�cjojqj^jajh� �5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj 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