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��ࡱ�>�� u �r�r�bjbj�n�n2��a��ad~ ��""��8��$�fpl��o�o�o�o�o�o�o$�q��t<p��p��4 p�:��o��o��nai<��l�o6p0fp�tc:�t�/�t�}lt��pp��fp��t��"qs: world development volume 169, issue 9, september 2023 1. title: earthquakes and mental health authors: luisito bertinelli, clotilde mah�, eric strobl abstract: earthquakes may seriously deteriorate mental health by generating fear and stress as a result of economic and human losses. however, mental health has also been found to improve as a result of greater social cohesion in affected communities after such events. we examine the short-run effects of earthquakes on a wide set of mental health outcomes in ecuador. to this end, we combine hospital admissions, death records, and survey data with precise measures of local seismic activity to exploit the plausibly random spatial and temporal nature of earthquake intensity. we find that damaging earthquakes decrease the propensity to be admitted, the number of days of hospitalisation for mental and behavioural disorders, and deaths to suicides. estimates from nationally-representative surveys provide evidence of increased life satisfaction, trust, and religious observance, suggesting a possible explanation for the fall in hospital admissions and suicides after an earthquake. 2. title: the bri: a new development cooperation paradigm in the making? unpacking china�s infrastructure cooperation along the maritime silk road authors: ana cristina alves, xue gong, mingjiang li abstract: this special issue aspires to contribute to the nascent literature on the developmental impact of the belt and road initiative (bri) and its implications for global development governance. it is our contention that the bri offers a unique window for a better understanding of china�s dual role as a development agent and a development-norms shaper. this introductory essay attempts to systematize theoretical insights drawn from in-depth empirical research along key nodes of the 21st century maritime silk road (msr), one key dimension of the bri. this special issue provides valuable insights into bri implementation on recipient countries by examining key infrastructure projects with the aim of uncovering the complexity of the variables determining bri dynamics and outcomes. the contributions highlight the versatility and the fragmentation of the bri as a cooperation platform, and the variegated nature of engagement patterns and outcomes on the ground. the findings of this collection of studies suggest that these variations are ultimately a function of the complex interaction between institutional contexts and agents from both sides (china and host countries), and that the quality and sustainability of such interplay has a significant bearing on developmental outcomes. moreover, as with traditional donors, inconsistencies between the official rhetoric and the actual implementation dynamics and developmental outcomes may subsequently undermine china�s legitimacy as a development �norm-maker� and cooperation partner. overall, our findings question the exceptionalism of china�s development cooperation approach and hence the prospects for the emergence of an alternative and more effective development paradigm appear slim at this juncture. 3. title: impacts of hydropower development on locals� livelihoods in the global south authors: laura castro-diaz, mar�a alejandra garc�a, sergio villamayor-tomas, maria claudia lopez abstract: the construction of hydroelectric dams in the global south and emerging economies is controversial; on one hand, advocates highlight the positive impacts at national and global scales, such as national development and independence from fossil fuels. on the other hand, opponents of dams stress the negative social-ecological impacts on the livelihoods of communities near construction sites, and the lack of local communities participation in the decision making processes. scholars have published a range of case studies exploring the impacts of dams. however, there is no comprehensive understanding of how hydroelectric dams impact people�s livelihoods and capital globally. in this study, we present a comparative medium-n survey exploring the impacts of 33 large-scale dams on people�s natural, social, human, financial, and physical capital and the pathways of conditions that explain the changes in these capital in the global south. to do so, we used the information from a qualitative meta-analysis of the social impacts of dams and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsqca). our results show that the types of people�s capital are impacted differently by the construction: natural, social, human, and financial capital are negatively impacted, whereas physical capital is often positively impacted. the fsqca showed three main groups of pathways that explain the changes in capital. first, the study indicates that lack of local communities participation in decision-making processes negatively impacts all capital but physical. second, regardless of the nation�s energy security, megadams generate primarily negative impacts on natural, social, and human capital and positive impacts on physical capital. third, our results indicate the importance of the world commission on dams in raising international awareness about the social-ecological impacts of dams despite a country�s energy-security status. 4. title: revisiting the role of secondary towns: how different types of urban growth relate to poverty in indonesia authors: john gibson, yi jiang, bambang susantono abstract: there is increasing interest in assessing whether big city growth has effects that differ from the effects of secondary town growth, especially in terms of impacts on poverty. it can be difficult to study these issues with typical sub-national economic data because urban growth often occurs outside the administrative boundaries of cities. an emerging literature therefore uses remote sensing to measure patterns of urban growth without being restricted by limitations of data for administrative areas. we add to this literature by combining poverty estimates from annual socio-economic surveys fielded from 2011 to 2019 with remote sensing data on night-time lights for 41 big cities and for secondary towns in 497 indonesian districts. we measure growth on the extensive (lit area) and intensive (brightness within lit area) margins, and distinguish between growth of big cities and of secondary towns and our spatial econometric models allow global and local spillovers. the extensive margin growth of secondary towns is associated with lower rates of poverty but no similar association holds for big city growth. these patterns corroborate earlier findings from india. potential productivity advantages of big cities and concerns about agricultural land loss to expanding towns may imply that urban growth patterns that favour big cities are warranted, while on the other hand these new results suggest, from a poverty reduction point of view, that policies to favour secondary towns may be warranted. policymakers in countries like indonesia therefore face difficult trade-offs when developing their urbanization strategies. 5. title: returning from greener pastures? how exposure to returnees affects migration plans authors: daniel auer, max schaub abstract: information and networks have long been hypothesized to be crucial elements of the formation of emigration intentions. returnees are a prime source of information about life as a migrant. in this study, we contribute to an emerging literature on the influence of returnees on the formation of migration decisions using representative geolocated data from 5,000 respondents and more than 47,000 family members and relatives from senegal and the gambia, two countries with high emigration rates in the past. we demonstrate that the presence of return migrants in a respondent�s vicinity is exogenously conditional on the current number of emigrants. this allows us to circumvent the endogeneity of personal networks and to estimate the effect of returnees on individual emigration intentions. migration intentions are substantially lower when emigrants who returned from europe are present in the area. this does not apply to returnees from another african country. further analyses reveal that migrants who returned from another african country improve the economic situation of families, while non-family returnees from europe have no lasting economic impact but instead salter people�s negative perceptions of migration. we infer that exposure to returnees depresses emigration plans because potential migrants become more aware of the risks of the migration journey and the stigma attached to returning unsuccessfully. 6. title: large-scale monitoring in the drc�s ituri forest with a locally informed multidimensional well-being index authors: jessica l'roe, diane detoeuf, michelle wieland, bernard ikati, ... david wilkie abstract: to monitor quality of life in changing landscapes and assess impacts of interventions, development scholars and practitioners continue to seek sensitive, flexible, practical means of measuring well-being. an approach that has received relatively little attention from development scholars but that is gaining traction among ngos is the use of a well-being index derived from a list of locally defined and democratically weighted basic necessities. the wildlife conservation society has been piloting a tool called the basic necessities survey (bns) in and around protected areas in central africa and beyond for over a decade. adapted from consensual relative poverty metrics developed in the uk and sweden, bns data can be used to calculate a well-being index (wbi) that is locally relevant and comparable. to demonstrate its applicability in a lower-income context, we present findings from the ituri region of the democratic republic of the congo (drc) where over 2,000 households were surveyed using the bns tool in 2015, 2017, and 2019. wbi scores were lower among traditionally vulnerable and marginalized groups: indigenous and female-headed households, those with young or elderly heads, and households that were smaller or had high ratios of dependents. wbi varied with livelihood and geography and was sensitive enough to detect group-specific changes over a short time; namely an economic shock concentrated in villages along the main local highway in 2017 when the drc experienced a major currency devaluation. scores can be calculated to either incorporate or isolate variability in subjective expectations about what constitutes well-being; we show that expectations differed for indigenous households and expectations rose faster than assets in this period. findings build confidence in the utility of this type of locally informed multidimensional well-being metric in low-income regions. those seeking practical instruments to produce flexible and regionally comparable well-being measures may wish to consider this approach. 7. title: license to educate: the role of national networks in colonial empires authors: bastian becker, carina schmitt abstract: colonial africa was shaped by a variety of european actors. of foremost importance in the educational sector were both colonial governments and christian mission societies. while their activities and long-term implications are often analyzed in isolation, few systematic studies investigate relationships between them. however, it is well-known that underfunded colonial governments supported mission societies, who used schools to attract new converts, as low-cost educational providers. in this paper, we argue that mission societies that shared national ties with colonial governments benefitted from increased support and engaged in more extensive educational activities. using new historical data on protestant mission societies from the interwar period in africa, we demonstrate that national alignment between mission societies and colonizer�s identity in british africa was associated with more primary schools and higher enrolment. we discuss and explore potential channels underlying this dynamic, including financial support for missionary activities as well as the granting of access to more favourable locations. our findings show that national networks are an important but understudied aspect of colonial empires. furthermore, analyzing the early expansion of education provides insights on the causal links often assumed by studies focused exclusively on long-term effects. 8. title: dismantling old or forging new clientelistic ties? sudan�s civil service reform after uprising authors: mai hassan, ahmed kodouda abstract: civil service reform is often a top priority for popular movements that unseat autocracy, and during democratization campaigns more broadly: when a deposed regime had relied upon a clientelistic state to stay in power, in which bureaucrats were rewarded for using their authority to further the interests of the regime and its top elites, new political elites have strong incentives to undertake changes to the state and its personnel upon taking over. yet despite initially-aligned politician incentives for civil service reform in post-uprising contexts, we highlight how bureaucratic actions can serve as a causal antecedent to new politicians� subsequent stymieing of reform. bureaucrats can leverage their embedded knowledge of state processes to forge clientelistic ties with new political elites. this in turn prompts politicians to use their power to block attempts to create more rational-legal agencies. we trace these dynamics through in-depth qualitative and ethnographic data of (failed) efforts to reform sudan�s civil service after the 2018�19 popular uprising which unseated a 30-year autocracy. overall, this paper helps explain why so many recent popular uprisings that have come to power have been unable to deliver the large-scale transformative reform upon which they were launched by focusing attention on the elements of the former autocracy that survived the transition. 9. title: chinese capital, regulatory strength and the bri: a tale of �fractured development� in cambodia authors: linda calabrese, yuan wang abstract: the scholarly debate on how developing countries can effectively manage chinese-sponsored infrastructure and investment (particularly since the launch of the belt and road initiative,bri) has largely focused on cross-country variations. less attention has been devoted to within-country variations: why can certain sectors within a country better align chinese corporate activities with their domestic development objectives than others? this study examines within-country variations by comparing sino-cambodian infrastructure cooperation at the national level and chinese investment in the gambling industry in sihanoukville. it argues that the host country�s regulatory strength in combination with different varieties of capital determines the effectiveness of the government's attempts at achieving their development objectives. using a case study approach based on primary interviews conducted in phnom penh and sihanoukville, this article finds dramatically different outcomes in the two sectors under analysis. in the infrastructure sector, we find that the high regulatory strength deployed by the line ministry in conjunction with chinese state capital achieves the government�s infrastructure development goals. on the contrary, in the gambling industry in sihanoukville, limited regulatory strength of the local government coupled with profit-driven short-term capital create a �chinese silo� that yields limited (or even negative) developmental outcomes. our analysis shows that regulatory strength can shape and affect the outcomes of foreign capital. these results are supported by the analysis of two shadow cases in manufacturing and real estate. we define this state of affairs as �fractured development�. 10. title: how to cope with a refugee population? evidence from uganda authors: mark marvin kadigo, jean-francois maystadt abstract: sub-saharan africa hosts a large proportion of the world�s refugees, raising concerns about the consequences on host countries. uganda is the largest refugee-hosting country in africa and is praised for its progressive refugee policy. we analyze the effects of hosting refugees on material welfare in uganda, relying on longitudinal data and an instrumental variable approach. our results indicate that ugandan households benefit from living close to refugee settlements. in contrast to the existing literature, those initially involved in subsistence agriculture benefit the most. the effect seems to be driven by the few households able to move from subsistence agriculture to commercial farming and to some extent, to wage employment. 11. title: what makes a program good? evidence from short-cycle higher education programs in five developing countries authors: lelys dinarte-diaz, maria marta ferreyra, sergio urzua, marina bassi abstract: short-cycle higher education programs (scps) can play a central role in skill development and higher education expansion, yet their quality varies greatly within and among countries. in this paper, we explore the relationship between programs� practices and inputs (quality determinants) and student academic and labor market outcomes. we design and conduct a novel survey to collect program-level information on quality determinants and average outcomes for brazil, colombia, dominican republic, ecuador, and peru. categories of quality determinants include training and curriculum, infrastructure, faculty, link with productive sector, costs and funding, and practices on student admission and institutional governance. we also gather administrative student-level data on higher education and formal employment for scp students in brazil and ecuador and match it to survey data. using machine learning methods, we select the quality determinants that predict outcomes at the program and student levels. we show that specific quality determinants may favor academic and labor market outcomes. two practices predict improvements in all labor market outcomes in brazil and ecuador�teaching numerical competencies and providing job market information�and one practice�teaching numerical competencies�additionally predicts improvements in labor market outcomes for all survey countries. since quality determinants account for 20�40 percent of the explained variation in student-level outcomes, quality determinants might have a role shrinking program quality gaps. these findings have implications for the design and replication of high-quality scps, their regulation, and the development of information systems. 12. title: drivers of growth accelerations: what role for capital accumulation? authors: eline koopman, konstantin m. wacker abstract: economic growth is often episodic but the ultimate drivers of such growth accelerations are not understood very well. we therefore take a different perspective and investigate what happens to production factors and productivity before, during, and after 156 growth accelerations that we identify for 148 countries between 1950 and 2019. we are particularly interested in the role that physical capital accumulation can play in this context, given recent interest in investment surges and several investment-led growth models. our results show that physical capital accumulation accounts on average for 9% of the increase in the growth rate during an acceleration, with heterogeneity across regions, time periods, and the economies� capital-output ratio. while growth accelerations are mainly driven by improvements in total factor productivity, we find that physical capital accumulation is an important factor for the sustainability of accelerations. those findings are robust to various techniques for identifying growth accelerations and growth decompositions. they suggest that large �investment-led� growth accelerations are unlikely but also confirm that growth episodes that are not accompanied by solid investment patterns are likely to run out of steam. 13. title: impact of a pension program on healthcare utilization among older farmers: empirical evidence from health claims data authors: feng-an yang, hung-hao chang abstract: in many countries, family-owned farms are predominant, with self-employed farmers. when such farmers reach retirement age, they likely do not have access to pensions. using the farmer pension program in taiwan as an example, this study examines the effect of access to public pension on healthcare utilization among older farmers. we investigate whether this program affects healthcare utilization, number of visits, and the costs associated with outpatient or inpatient services and prescription drugs. we also explore whether these effects vary by medical specialty and the amount of pension received. by using health claims data from the universal health insurance program and a regression discontinuity design, we find that pension payments significantly increase the number of outpatient visits by 4% and outpatient expenditure by 5%. we also find that pension recipients spend more on family medicine, internal medicine, and chinese medicine. as the pension program is designed to secure older farmers� welfare, our results demonstrate an improvement in the health component of individual well-being. 14. title: how political insiders lose out when international aid underperforms: evidence from a participatory development experiment in ghana authors: kate baldwin, dean karlan, christopher udry, ernest appiah abstract: although participatory development often aims specifically to mitigate problems from political biases and party-based clientelism, the path is complicated and depends critically on the efficacy of underlying programs as well as how they interact with pre-existing institutions. we provide a framework to understand when participatory development is likely to generate politically biased benefits, showing that even if participatory aid is neutrally allocated, neutral benefit realizations occur only under specific circumstances. we apply this framework to a five-year randomized controlled study of a major participatory development program in ghana, analyzing the program�s effects on participation in, leadership of, and investment by pre-existing political institutions, and on households� overall socioeconomic well-being. we find the government and its political supporters acted with high expectations for the participatory approach: treatment led to increased participation in local governance and reallocation of resources. but the results did not meet expectations, resulting in a worsening of socioeconomic wellbeing in treatment versus control villages for government supporters. this demonstrates aid�s complex distributional consequences. 15. title: resource rents, coercion, and local development: evidence from post-apartheid south africa authors: paulo bastos, nicolas bottan abstract: we examine how the dismantling of coercive institutions associated with the end of apartheid in south africa in 1994 affected the distribution of natural resource rents, and thereby impacted local economic development. individual-level data from 1993 to 2015 reveal that relative real wages of black workers increased at a significantly faster pace in the mining industry than in other sectors. community-level data from the 1996 and 2011 population census reveal that this pattern helped explain the evolution of relative incomes of the former self-governing territories set aside for black inhabitants. using data from the 1996 census, we document large income gaps between communities located just-inside and just-outside the former self-governing territories set aside for black inhabitants. examining relative changes between 1996 and 2011, we find that spatial income convergence was considerably stronger among marginalized communities with higher initial exposure to resource rents. these results accord with bargaining theory in which the dismantling of coercive institutions improves the negotiating position of unionized workers in the mining industry. 16. title: when do anti-bribery laws affect international trade? authors: john firth abstract: this paper studies the relationship between anti-corruption enforcement and trade, offering a novel empirical perspective on the oecd anti-bribery convention (abc), in which signatory countries agreed to prosecute bribery of foreign officials. existing literature on abc focuses on its early years, claiming that it led oecd firms to avoid exporting to corrupt destinations, with the effect of diverting business away from developing countries. yet these early years involved little actual enforcement, and i argue that the redirection of trade in this period owed not to the anti-bribery laws themselves, but to an underlying trend of increased political cooperation among oecd countries, as indicated by several factors including patterns in un voting affinity. only when enforcement of the laws intensifies, during the oecd�s phase 3 initiative, do the laws begin having real effects, diverting oecd countries� trade away from corrupt destinations. 17. title: household welfare effects of roscas authors: pushkar maitra, ray miller, ashish sedai abstract: we examine the effects of rotating savings and credit associations (roscas) on household welfare in india. the identification strategy is based on household fixed effects and instrumental variables (using the geographic leave-one-out instrument). we find that rosca membership increases household assets, consumption, energy efficiency and school expenditure, but only in rural areas. welfare effects are stronger for poorer households and for those living in communities with stronger social ties. we argue that the persistence and success of roscas depends on social ties, which are often stronger in rural communities. 18. title: rethinking agrarian transition in southeast asia through rice farming in thailand authors: arunee promkhambut, phanwin yokying, kevin woods, micah fisher, ... jefferson fox abstract: this paper contributes to new understandings of agrarian transition for smallholder rice farming in southeast asia through quantitative data analysis from thailand�s two main rice growing regions. despite economic modernization models predicting a farm-size transition of smallholder agriculture to large-scale commercial farms with the onset of industrialization and urban employment opportunities, we find rice farmers continue to persist and defy anticipated trends, but not uniformly. we conducted a comprehensive survey in 2019 with rice farming households in twelve provinces in thailand�s central plains and the northeast on how a host of dynamic farming variables have changed from 2000 to 2019. rather than the concentration of smallholder rice farms into large commercial farms, we find that the size of smallholder rice farms has remained remarkably consistent across study sites. our comparative data analysis advances an interrelated set of key explanatory variables that go beyond land size to explicate the variegated nature of agrarian transition: access to resources, household farm labor, farm inputs, agrarian finance, and government support. our study demonstrates the need for taking into consideration (sub-)regional specificity of material conditions and multi-scaled forces, as well as geographical proximity to advantageous factors, in shaping variegated trajectories of agrarian transition. smallholder rice farmers and rice production is not about to significantly decline in either region of thailand nor the rest of southeast asia, at least for the next several decades, but will increasingly be defined by changing demographics, growing environmental and climatic challenges, and consolidating global rice production supply chains. 19. title: how do forests contribute to food security following a weather shock? evidence from malawi authors: jessica meyer abstract: rural residents in developing countries are particularly vulnerable to shocks related to weather events. in this context, forests are frequently presented as safety nets, especially for households with limited risk-management options. this analysis aims to provide further evidence on the effectiveness of such safety nets. specifically, the objective of this work is to analyze the extent to which forests serve as an effective safety net for food security when other potential risk-management options are available, or not, in rural areas. focusing on agricultural households in malawi, we combine several rounds of observations from the world bank's living standards measurement study-integrated surveys on agriculture (lsms-isa) with geospatial data on forest cover and a drought index based on both precipitation and temperature. our results show that forests play an important role in protecting households� diets in the aftermath of a weather shock, especially amongst those that appear to have limited insurance options, and/or that may need to further diversify their portfolio of potential insurance mechanisms to cope with a shock. by looking at food security, we highlight both the market and non-market benefits of forest resources in the aftermath of a shock. moreover, we provide additional empirical evidence on the characteristics of households that depend on forest resources during challenging times. overall, in light of the fundamental role forests play for human and planetary health, these findings shed light on the need to preserve forest access to forest-dependent communities and strengthen the sustainable management of forest resources. 20. title: foreign pressure and public opinion in target states authors: masaru kohno, gabriella r. montinola, matthew s. winters abstract: to influence states� treatment of their citizens, various foreign actors deploy a broad array of tools, including moral suasion and material assistance. the efficacy of international pressure is often contingent on how publics in target states respond. employing survey experiments, we examine how two common tools of external influence employed by other countries �verbal condemnation and the threat of aid withdrawal�affect public opinion in three asian states that have been criticized for their human rights practices: myanmar, nepal, and indonesia. overall, we find that, in the face of such pressure, preference for the status quo policy becomes stronger among the supporters of incumbent governments in target states. in contrast, those who are not government partisans are more likely to support policy change for better human rights conditions. the latter, however, is the constituency less likely to exert influence on the government to revise its policy. together, these findings point to the possibility that criticism and aid sanction threats employed by foreign countries will be ineffective or even counterproductive at least in the short run. 21. title: links between firm registration and performance: does it pay to register? authors: jane kabubo-mariara, phyllis mumia machio, michael murigi njoroge, margaret chemengich abstract: the informal sector is an important part of kenya�s economy and contributes significantly to employment creation, production and poverty reduction. the micro, small and medium enterprises (msme) sector has especially been singled out and prioritized as an important driver of growth, yet close to 80% of msme in kenya are informal. the question that arises is whether firm registration limits firm performance. using data from the 2016 kenya micro, small and medium enterprises (msme) survey, we estimate the effect of firm registration on firm performance. we control for self-selection into registration using instrumental variable and coarsened exact matching (cem) methods. we find that firm registration is associated with between 45% and 51% increase in firm income. for micro firms, registration raises firm income by between 49% and 65%. these findings indicate that formal firms are more productive than informal firms. this holds true even for micro firms. when firms operate informally, they limit their potential performance. policies that promote and facilitate firm registration can go a long way in increasing productivity of msme with positive implications for employment creation, production and poverty reduction. $%'035679b_`h��ʸʩʸ��wobtf9thj�5�ojqj^jo(hmm�hmm�5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h�]5�cjojqj^jajh 2e5�cjojqj^jajhmm�5�cjojqj^jaj#hmm�hmm�5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj h$-�5�cjojqj^jajo(#hmm�hmm�5�cjojqj^jaj678`�tu < k&'~�lm�}#~#�#�#��gd�psgd)w�gd$?�gdto�gdmm�gd�l$gd%j,gdu<�gd�"�$a$gdt4hi��stuvx~ ; < e f 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