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��ࡱ�>�� |~��{��u �r�jbjbj�n�n2l��a��a�b ��""��8�\u��q�qqqqq��p�p�p�p�p�p�p$:s��u<qq��q��qq4rq ��q�q�p ��p q��p��$��s. �phq0�q ,v�l,v �0,v��m,�� qq�@��q��,v��"qs: the quarterly journal of economics volume 139, issue 2, may 2024 1. title: wealth of two nations: the u.s. racial wealth gap, 1860�2020. authors: derenoncourt, ellora; kim, chi hyun; kuhn, moritz; schularick, moritz. abstract: the racial wealth gap is the largest of the economic disparities between black and white americans, with a white-to-black per capita wealth ratio of 6 to 1. it is also among the most persistent. in this article, we construct the first continuous series on white-to-black per capita wealth ratios from 1860 to 2020, drawing on historical census data, early state tax records, and historical waves of the survey of consumer finances, among other sources. incorporating these data into a parsimonious model of wealth accumulation for each racial group, we document the role played by initial conditions, income growth, savings behavior, and capital returns in the evolution of the gap. given vastly different starting conditions under slavery, racial wealth convergence would remain a distant scenario, even if wealth-accumulating conditions had been equal across the two groups since emancipation. relative to this equal-conditions benchmark, we find that observed convergence has followed an even slower path over the past 150 years, with convergence stalling after 1950. since the 1980s, the wealth gap has widened again as capital gains have predominantly benefited white households, and convergence via income growth and savings has come to a halt. 2. title: machine learning as a tool for hypothesis generation. authors: ludwig, jens; mullainathan, sendhil. abstract: while hypothesis testing is a highly formalized activity, hypothesis generation remains largely informal. we propose a systematic procedure to generate novel hypotheses about human behavior, which uses the capacity of machine learning algorithms to notice patterns people might not. we illustrate the procedure with a concrete application: judge decisions about whom to jail. we begin with a striking fact: the defendant's face alone matters greatly for the judge's jailing decision. in fact, an algorithm given only the pixels in the defendant's mug shot accounts for up to half of the predictable variation. we develop a procedure that allows human subjects to interact with this black-box algorithm to produce hypotheses about what in the face influences judge decisions. the procedure generates hypotheses that are both interpretable and novel: they are not explained by demographics (e.g. race) or existing psychology research, nor are they already known (even if tacitly) to people or experts. though these results are specific, our procedure is general. it provides a way to produce novel, interpretable hypotheses from any high-dimensional data set (e.g. cell phones, satellites, online behavior, news headlines, corporate filings, and high-frequency time series). a central tenet of our article is that hypothesis generation is a valuable activity, and we hope this encourages future work in this largely "prescientific" stage of science. 3. title: the economic impacts of covid-19: evidence from a new public database built using private sector data. authors: chetty, raj; friedman, john n; stepner, michael; team, opportunity insights. abstract: we build a publicly available database that tracks economic activity in the united states at a granular level in real time using anonymized data from private companies. we report weekly statistics on consumer spending, business revenues, job postings, and employment rates disaggregated by county, sector, and income group. using the publicly available data, we show how the covid-19 pandemic affected the economy by analyzing heterogeneity in its effects across subgroups. high-income individuals reduced spending sharply in march 2020, particularly in sectors that require in-person interaction. this reduction in spending greatly reduced the revenues of small businesses in affluent, dense areas. those businesses laid off many of their employees, leading to widespread job losses, especially among low-wage workers in such areas. high-wage workers experienced a v-shaped recession that lasted a few weeks, whereas low-wage workers experienced much larger, more persistent job losses. even though consumer spending and job postings had recovered fully by december 2021, employment rates in low-wage jobs remained depressed in areas that were initially hard hit, indicating that the temporary fall in labor demand led to a persistent reduction in labor supply. building on this diagnostic analysis, we evaluate the effects of fiscal stimulus policies designed to stem the downward spiral in economic activity. cash stimulus payments led to sharp increases in spending early in the pandemic, but much smaller responses later in the pandemic, especially for high-income households. real-time estimates of marginal propensities to consume provided better forecasts of the impacts of subsequent rounds of stimulus payments than historical estimates. overall, our findings suggest that fiscal policies can stem secondary declines in consumer spending and job losses, but cannot restore full employment when the initial shock to consumer spending arises from health concerns. more broadly, our analysis demonstrates how public statistics constructed from private sector data can support many research and real-time policy analyses, providing a new tool for empirical macroeconomics. 4. title: logs with zeros? some problems and solutions. authors: chen, jiafeng; roth, jonathan. abstract: when studying an outcome y that is weakly positive but can equal zero (e.g. earnings), researchers frequently estimate an average treatment effect (ate) for a "log-like" transformation that behaves like log (y) for large y but is defined at zero (e.g. log (1 y), |$\operatorname{arcsinh}(y)$|` ). we argue that ates for log-like transformations should not be interpreted as approximating percentage effects, since unlike a percentage, they depend on the units of the outcome. in fact, we show that if the treatment affects the extensive margin, one can obtain a treatment effect of any magnitude simply by rescaling the units of y before taking the log-like transformation. this arbitrary unit dependence arises because an individual-level percentage effect is not well-defined for individuals whose outcome changes from zero to nonzero when receiving treatment, and the units of the outcome implicitly determine how much weight the ate for a log-like transformation places on the extensive margin. we further establish a trilemma: when the outcome can equal zero, there is no treatment effect parameter that is an average of individual-level treatment effects, unit invariant, and point identified. we discuss several alternative approaches that may be sensible in settings with an intensive and extensive margin, including (i) expressing the ate in levels as a percentage (e.g. using poisson regression), (ii) explicitly calibrating the value placed on the intensive and extensive margins, and (iii) estimating separate effects for the two margins (e.g. using lee bounds). we illustrate these approaches in three empirical applications. 5. title: violence against women at work. authors: adams-prassl, abi; huttunen, kristiina; nix, emily; zhang, ning. abstract: we link every police report in finland to administrative data to identify violence between colleagues and the economic consequences for victims, perpetrators, and firms. this new approach to observe when one colleague attacks another overcomes previous data constraints limiting evidence on this phenomenon to self-reported surveys that do not identify perpetrators. we document large, persistent labor market effects of between-colleague violence on victims and perpetrators. male perpetrators experience substantially weaker consequences after attacking female colleagues. perpetrators' relative economic power in male-female violence partly explains this asymmetry. turning to broader implications for firm recruitment and retention, we find that male-female violence causes a decline in the proportion of women at the firm, both because fewer new women are hired and current female employees leave. management plays a key role in mediating the effects on the wider workforce. only male-managed firms lose women. female-managed firms exhibit a key difference relative to male-managed firms: male perpetrators are less likely to remain employed after attacking their female colleagues. 6. title: monitoring for waste: evidence from medicare audits. authors: shi, maggie. abstract: this article examines the trade-offs of monitoring for wasteful public spending. by penalizing unnecessary spending, monitoring improves the quality of public expenditure and incentivizes firms to invest in compliance technology. i study a large medicare program that monitored for unnecessary health care spending and consider its effect on government savings, provider behavior, and patient health. every dollar medicare spent on monitoring generated $24�$29 in government savings. the majority of savings stem from the deterrence of future care, rather than reclaimed payments from prior care. i do not find evidence that the health of the marginal patient is harmed, indicating that monitoring primarily deters low-value care. monitoring does increase provider administrative costs, but these costs are mostly incurred up-front and include investments in technology to assess the medical necessity of care. 7. title: the impact of public school choice: evidence from los angeles's zones of choice. authors: campos, christopher; kearns, caitlin. abstract: does a school district that expands school choice provide better outcomes for students than a neighborhood-based assignment system? this article studies the zones of choice (zoc) program, a school choice initiative of the los angeles unified school district (lausd) that created small high school markets in some neighborhoods but left attendance zone boundaries in place throughout the rest of the district. we study market-level effects of choice on student achievement and college enrollment using a difference-in-differences design. student outcomes in zoc markets increased markedly, narrowing achievement and college enrollment gaps between zoc neighborhoods and the rest of the district. the effects of zoc are larger for schools exposed to more competition, supporting the notion that competition is a key channel. demand estimates suggest families place substantial weight on schools' academic quality, providing schools with competition-induced incentives to improve their effectiveness. the evidence demonstrates that public school choice programs have the potential to improve school quality and reduce neighborhood-based disparities in educational opportunity. 8. title: a retrieved-context theory of financial decisions. authors: wachter, jessica a; kahana, michael jacob. abstract: studies of human memory indicate that features of an event evoke memories of prior associated contextual states, which in turn become associated with the current event's features. this retrieved-context mechanism allows the remote past to influence the present, even as agents gradually update their beliefs about their environment. we apply a version of retrieved-context theory, drawn from the literature on human memory, to explain three types of evidence in the financial economics literature: the role of early life experience in shaping investment choices, occurrence of financial crises, and the effect of fear on asset allocation. these applications suggest a recasting of neoclassical rational expectations in terms of beliefs as governed by principles of human memory. 9. title: organizational structure and pricing: evidence from a large u.s. airline&. authors: horta�su, ali; natan, olivia r; parsley, hayden; schwieg, timothy; williams, kevin r. abstract: firms facing complex objectives often decompose the problems they face, delegating different parts of the decision to distinct subunits. using comprehensive data and internal models from a large u.s. airline, we establish that airline pricing is not well approximated by a model of the firm as a unitary decision maker. we show that observed prices, however, can be rationalized by accounting for organizational structure and for the decisions by departments that are tasked with supplying inputs to the observed pricing heuristic. simulating the prices the firm would charge if it were a rational, unitary decision maker results in lower welfare than we estimate under observed practices. finally, we discuss why counterfactual estimates of welfare and market power may be biased if prices are set through decomposition, but we instead assume that they are set by unitary decision makers. 10. title: the evolution of market power in the u.s. automobile industry. authors: grieco, paul l e; murry, charles; yurukoglu, ali. abstract: we construct measures of industry performance and welfare in the u.s. automobile market from 1980 to 2018. we estimate a demand model using product-level data on market shares, prices, and attributes, and consumer-level data on demographics, purchases, and stated second choices. we estimate marginal costs assuming nash-bertrand pricing. we relate trends in consumer welfare and markups to trends in market structure and the composition of products. although real prices rose, we find that markups decreased substantially, and the fraction of total surplus accruing to consumers increased. consumer welfare increased over time due to improved product quality and improved production technology. 11. title: grantmaking, grading on a curve, and the paradox of relative evaluation in nonmarkets. authors: adda, j�r�me; ottaviani, marco. abstract: the article develops a model of nonmarket allocation of resources such as the awarding of grants to meritorious projects, honors to outstanding students, or journal slots to quality publications. on the supply side, the available budget of grants is awarded to applicants who are evaluated most favorably according to the noisy information available to reviewers. on the demand side, stronger candidates are more likely to obtain grants and thus self-select into applying, given that applications are costly. we establish that if evaluation is perfect, grading on a curve inefficiently discourages even the very best candidates from applying. more generally, when the budget is insufficient to award grants to all applicants, the equilibrium unravels if information is symmetric enough�the paradox of relative evaluation. leveraging a technique based on the quantile function pioneered by lehmann, we characterize a broad set of nonmarket allocation rules under which an increase in evaluation noise in a field (or course) raises equilibrium applications in that field, and reduces applications in all other fields. we empirically confirm these comparative statics by exploiting a change in the rule for apportioning the total budget to applications in different fields at the european research council, showing that a 1 standard deviation increase in own evaluation noise leads to a 0.4 standard deviation increase in the number of applications and budget share. moreover, we derive insights for the design of evaluation institutions, particularly regarding the endogenous choice of noise by fields or courses and the optimal aggregation of fields into panels. 12. title: how americans respond to idiosyncratic and exogenous changes in household wealth and unearned income. authors: golosov, mikhail; graber, michael; mogstad, magne; novgorodsky, david. abstract: we study how americans respond to idiosyncratic and exogenous changes in household wealth and unearned income. our analyses combine administrative data on u.s. lottery winners with an event study design. we first examine individual and household earnings responses to these windfall gains, finding significant and sizable wealth and income effects. on average, an extra |${\$}$| 1 of unearned income in a given period reduces household labor earnings by about 50 cents, decreases total labor taxes by 10 cents, and increases consumption expenditure by 60 cents. these effects are heterogeneous across the income distribution, with households in higher quartiles of the income distribution reducing their earnings by a larger amount. next we examine margins of adjustment other than earnings and, in the course of doing so, address a number of important economic questions about how additional wealth or unearned income affect "#*-.568;>@abdm��ʸ�ʗʸ�ye]pb4h`�h`�5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h!@�5�cjojqj^jajh 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