-k8凯发天生赢家
��ࡱ�>�� _a����^�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� �r��4bjbjy.y.26;d�g;d�g9
�������66������������8<z� o�nnnnn���dnfnfnfnfnfnfn$�p��sf�n9�������n��nn4�n������n�ndn��dn���n����pܸ�������pn�n0 o��s�r�s���0�s�8k���������n�n����� o�������������������������������������������������������������������������s���������6b�: journal of political economy
volume 131, issue 11, november 2023
1. title: optimal dynamic mediation.
authors: fanning, jack.
abstract: how should mediators communicate with bargainers? when can they improve outcomes? can arbitrators that impose outcomes do better? i provide answers in wars of attrition with flexible and commitment types, consistent with reputational bargaining. i characterize the unique mediated equilibrium, which maximizes flexible types' payoffs. the mediator immediately elicits private information but waits to suggest agreements. she front-loads agreements between flexible types, while initially delaying any involving commitment types. this improves on unmediated outcomes only if commitment probabilities are less than agents' payoff share in their preferred agreement. arbitrators do strictly better but sometimes impose disagreement, which may be hard to enforce.
2. title: shocks and technology adoption: evidence from electronic payment systems.
authors: crouzet, nicolas; gupta, apoorv; mezzanotti, filippo.
abstract: we provide evidence on the importance of coordination frictions in technology adoption, using data from a large provider of electronic wallets during the indian demonetization. exploiting geographical variation in exposure to the demonetization, we show that adoption of the wallet increased persistently in response to the large but temporary cash contraction, consistent with the predictions of a technology adoption model with complementarities. model estimates indicate that adoption would have been 45% lower without complementarities. our results illustrate how large but temporary interventions can help overcome coordination frictions, though we caution that such interventions may also exacerbate initial differences in adoption.
3. title: information frictions, reputation, and sovereign spreads.
authors: morelli, juan m.; moretti, matias.
abstract: we formulate a reputational model in which the type of government is time varying and private information. agents adjust their beliefs about the government's type (i.e., reputation) using noisy signals about its policies. we consider a debt repayment setting in which reputation influences the market's perceived probability of default, which affects sovereign spreads. we focus on the 2007�12 argentine episode of inflation misreport to quantify how markets price reputation. we find that the misreports significantly increased argentina's sovereign spreads. we use those estimates to discipline our model and show that reputation can have long-lasting effects on a government's borrowing costs.
4. title: gainers and losers in priority services.
authors: gershkov, alex; winter, eyal.
abstract: we analyze the implications of priority service (ps) on customers' welfare. in monopoly markets, ps can often decrease consumer surplus and can even yield a loss of welfare to all consumers. this happens despite its efficiency gains, as monopolists levy in revenue more than the total efficiency gains. ps can increase consumer surplus if it expands the consumption coverage�that is, if it introduces new customers who would not purchase the service otherwise. in duopoly markets, the price competition over ps can be severely eroded. under homogeneity, firms act as if they were monopolists serving half of the market.
5. title: disability insurance income saves lives.
authors: gelber, alexander; moore, timothy; pei, zhuan; strand, alexander.
abstract: we show that higher payments from us social security disability insurance (di) reduce mortality. using administrative data on new di beneficiaries, we exploit discontinuities in the benefit formula through a regression kink design. we estimate that $1,000 more in annual di payments decreases the annual mortality rate of lower-income beneficiaries by approximately 0.18�0.35 percentage points, implying an elasticity of mortality with respect to di income of around "0.6 to "1.0. we find no robust evidence of an effect of di income on the mortality of higher-income beneficiaries.
6. title: informed information design.
authors: koessler, fr�d�ric; skreta, vasiliki.
abstract: we study informed persuasion, whereby a privately informed designer without ex ante commitment power chooses disclosure mechanisms to influence agents' actions. we characterize the subset of bayes-correlated equilibria yielding every designer type a payoff higher than what they could get from any disclosure mechanism with credible beliefs. this set of interim-optimal mechanisms is nonempty and tractable, and all its elements are perfect bayesian equilibrium mechanisms of the informed-designer game. interim-optimal mechanisms are characterized via belief-based approaches in pure persuasion settings. we identify single- and multiagent interactive environments in which ex ante�optimal mechanisms are interim optimal.
7. title: public debt as private liquidity: optimal policy.
authors: angeletos, george-marios; collard, fabrice; dellas, harris.
abstract: we study optimal policy in an economy where interest rates are low because public debt serves as collateral or buffer stock. issuing more public debt raises welfare by easing the underlying friction but also reduces the private valuation of this service, raising interest rates. this trade-off shapes the optimal quantity of public debt in the long run, justifies a departure from tax smoothing in the short run, and calls for larger$'/13;>@abcdmghp��ʸʸʦ��tl__qc6qhj�5�ojqj^jo(hgm�hgm�5�ojqj^jh�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jh�ud5�ojqj^jo(h�"�h�"�o(&h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jajo(h�]5�cjojqj^jajh
2e5�cjojqj^jaj#hco`hco`5�cjojqj^jaj#hgm�hgm�5�cjojqj^jaj#h�"�h�"�5�cjojqj^jaj h$-�5�cjojqj^jajo(#hgm�hgm�5�cjojqj^jajabch����ht78k� <�����������������������gd�psgd)w�gdgm�gd$?�gdto�gd�l�gd�l$gd%j,gdu<�gd�"�$a$gdt4pq���
�����������
���˽��������|�n^|���^|pcch�l�h�l�ojqj^jhih�l$ojqj^jo(hvi�h�l$5�ojqj^jo(h�l�h�l�5�ojqj^jh�l$h�l$5�ojqj^jh�l$5�ojqj^jo(hj�5�ojqjo(hiht4ojqj^jo(hgm�hgm�ojqj^jhihj�ojqj^jo(h�"�hu<�5�ojqj^jht45�ojqj^jo(hgm�hgm�5�ojqj^jhicy5�ojqj^j
ghpqst}~678���ʼ��ʙ���{��m````shh%j,5�ojqjo(hihanojqj^jh�h�ojqj^jh�)hto�ojqj^jo(hgm�hgm�5�ojqj^jhvi�hto�5�ojqj^jo(h�h�5�ojqj^jhto�hto�5�ojqj^jhto�hto�h�"�h�`�5�ojqj^jhto�5�ojqj^jo(h�l�h%j,5�ojqjo(h�l�hu<�ojqj^jo(h�l�h�l�ojqj^j89;abjkst����
���ʼ��ʞ�׀ssssezm?h�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�ps5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(hvi�h%j,ojqj^jo(hzhzojqj^jh�)h$?�ojqj^jo(hgm�h$?�5�ojqj^jo(hgm�hgm�5�ojqj^jhvi�h$?�5�ojqj^jo(hzhz5�ojqj^jh$?�5�ojqj^jo(h$?�h$?�5�ojqj^jh�"�h%j,5�ojqj^jhs/�5�ojqj^jo(;<de����������������亪�����sh[m?[hr7ahr7a5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jhr7a5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(hvi�h)w�ojqj^jo(h��h��ojqj^jh}onh)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jhvi�h)w�5�ojqj^jo(hgm�hgm�5�ojqj^jhvi�h�ps5�ojqj^jh��h��5�ojqj^jh�ps5�ojqj^jo(h�psh�ps5�ojqj^j����*d��4�4�4�4�4�4�4�4�4�4�4�4��������������������gd�gd|�gd�%gdr7agd)w����)*34 ����ǹ�������rdwi;wh|�h|�5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh|�5�ojqj^jo(h�%h)w�5�ojqjo(h�%h)w�ojqj^jo(h�%h�%ojqj^jh}onh)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jhvi�h)w�5�ojqj^jo(hgm�hgm�5�ojqj^jhvi�hvi�5�ojqj^jhr7ahr7a5�ojqj^jhvi�hr7a5�ojqj^jh�%h�%5�ojqj^jcdm����d4�4�4�4�4�4�4�4�4�4�4�4�4�4�4�4�4�4���ƿ�������~phddhddhddhdddph�:gjh�:guh��hj<ojqj^jo(hvi�h)w�ojqj^jo(uht:5ht:5ojqj^jh}onh)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jhvi�h)w�5�ojqj^jo(hgm�hgm�5�ojqj^jh|�h|�5�ojqj^jhvi�h|�5�ojqj^jht:5ht:55�ojqj^j deficits during financial crises. our analysis illustrates the possible robustness of these insights to different microfoundations and helps clarify when exactly low interest rates represent an opportunity for cheap government borrowing.
01�82p��. ��a!�"�#��$��%��s����x2���� 0@p`p������2(�� 0@p`p������ 0@p`p������ 0@p`p������ 0@p`p������ 0@p`p������ 0@p`p��8x�v~�������� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@66666pj_hmh nhsh thj`��jck�e$1$a$ cjkh_hajmh nhsh th$a ���$؞���k=�w[sobi���bnf�h����c���ݓ�v�u�a
��6f�������͌�n�|q�sax\��
���>�8�����o����( �b\�'x�77?��ڐ!����@5?�2�xy}xf�kp���gh�%v�ވ��
�����b���������|���g_���9�ѣ`(�b-�)�(������b"�{g��|07`�]�p�eb�_�?����1�r��!��?s���`��m�-�ʥ�v�_�\ĵ��j�������ns.���j�4����cw��\ zxc��筲�����/-���x��kp�//����z�֯a)���������_�bj���p��5f�� cf����r�]]�*�q�
yv)c�e��c��p@�$�=9i��!�_�������vhb�%(fv��va
��ߒ���602�- "�o�9idͿ
z}r�����'�=y�����s�z�%�����{��w�<����wo�~����omͩv�{����_�8}���:�oq�3�]a���c�.�`���/&�
1%��@�) �-z� �ȁ�cۏ�9t����"� �x��;adw�uɲ^��ln���m��m�]��\�(���'pb�ke#���b�c�{l��cw���k�� 6����q��kzv6�b�$��l\!ޖov�{uf]�n�# ���]l-7�bc�"��.����$c�΄�m\kh�t�)�z,�kf��~���apܜaߥ��frif.�;�1�d�f��ą�84����(��t�w����k�����>�v�ϯ����qw���[�y�ۙ�!®r��#��nq�̎�8�r{c���c�ާu�x>�i���lcwb�fv������f�n�a�ll ���\ᙠ8b|��=����v������>�l��i���}:��^�� dvs��n��<�<���s<� �/,�ݔy�o��z��"����-�x��ets�bc���~h�0�pd�<����f��7���q��sg��qǭتut�ւ���fn~�i0> �l�d��cy,xw#��h���g�e��� �lܸd|0������d���uޑ��c�h�ϐpڑ�w�>��ufіe%��=qv���q�90`����ǚ��ȱ����r���@x pf�������]6h�:�eu��vv�d�^(g�pl%st���e�5�@��(ً�0��$�$��e�$}�ns��;{/,�,� ��p-�jyt�����k~�" �q0�t��pϣ���>#�̙v��=ˀ<������ݥ�v�h[$�t�ih��o��-x��j�<4.��<�=�
mr �q��.��5��������qͯ��!e�(��c82��q�#�w.dx�җ<}�/sy.d�0u�.:i5���ܣ$��j�yh�k��v\�����[����a��!�k3�ɗ�tz >�λz��`%���n88�zt��"h�r��8 ^so�
�
y�s�izv�wq:��ud�m;�y�s�.�}������j�d�{�j��s�n�u���ү{���q4�iu�5�u̲0ks��\�7x�\5���i�/��z77'd]����u��j�1��b�x�u͞�ڽc��3���iu�2s;緬g8���:?��g-,
gs���~un��f�c(m�r�t
jxi�d=�dec�n���pk!
ѐ��'theme/theme/_rels/thememanager.xml.rels��m
�0���wooӻ�&݈э���5
6?$q��
�,.�a��i����c2�1h�:�q��m��@rn��;d�`��o7�g�k(m&$r(.1�r'j��њt���8��v�"��aȼ�h�u}��|�$�b{��p����8�g/]�qasم(����#��l�[������pk-!����[content_types].xmlpk-!�֧��60_rels/.relspk-!ky���theme/theme/thememanager.xmlpk-!�r���theme/theme/theme1.xmlpk-!
ѐ��'� theme/theme/_rels/thememanager.xml.relspk]�
g-6���� p8��4��4�@� @���������h ��0�( �
����0�( �
��b
�s���� ?�3;����t
|
�
�
e
k
m
r
#r[dj~���9;<>?abdh@9h@�9;<>?abdh$'/13;>@ccmhq�������� gqs~6
8
8
b
j
t
�
�
;
e
�
�
����� .9
hr��7h��q04e��n[g],-�o�����`<|��o";0ri1�%�rrsui��w�i�={u�,� uz*�m� �>&��|a#r=��-9h�s��eme�.~��
{r�v�4�1l2q �"�iaha��og>�u��`�1_%v��nh{��q��u�3�d]-�z:kkkkn;�q0�<�?*�7��:a��^b� �l{��2h�y��(�#!�q��m4-cqrrs�4>�p]�sao-�?��yn�b~i�(��)ib��>!]�.�`
rv:g&>!��}n!�l��2�"�0r��\�|�md-%;�blrbr]�a
6ji� ��vj�`�[jo 5j90�ry �:[�
k 3q-r�jx 8i� tp� k�|�2~�
��y��k�
?i��� *�?=��#??*�@�4le�dw"
���z�g�kd�2�^e�-h�x�w��t�bs &�x�-z�6��y��w�i�>�:-��u
kkkkdw"
q�x�-h�
k^r�
�^�vxb�
�=#�/y�pur ����
��'ff�x-z�d�y�(��)fk{z��fv��-�p�'�e��4�!~q�2h`�?i��be��@��fk-<"��l�q�u��y/�x{��]^�~76=&����`
[� ��rh&<�^��oc!��d{�/�"��;�q���[��h�2��d���t��w�8i� (f�tl(����}�t�a9�~�8��7l��4�";�g)n��p7v}g�xd|��&�h�w�a�g�b�u�d\*�)#jb�l�d�
)r�}��w�gl$l��r�qh� v���/xcz.�^m~;�|p%�fzps7l�ps�#���<>)��s��vj��h5h 5� a�l[�x� xcz�be�yfdxl�y��raj>�n�cr%v��h�a9�� !`��}<�q�}q =�7y]��r�-��.��zf�7��
�e�o[kh,~�hmpm~�mg�=�j��>m�?[%��'w�jo8�l�y2\gqwez ��p]74�`a��m�!�|z��z:�*��b!�g;cq�qq�h�nk^r a�x�t
an�gap�y8��x���s��d���z��j�vzq��t\
~��av'po�_m4�i�w��tkpb�`
rq1��yn��#a pur �p}��� urep�&>!�z[fxx)!�b!x{�ec!�t�k��oc!�v�>b(p!� ]!�3�l��!nr�q�m�!�j#�g-�!�f�d�[z"�u&z�6'�"�zy�q �"ji�_��m�"� ]!�&�"�)��/�"|z�s\�"=v�g��~#�)9~��k#�� �i3#�#?�=#�i\;�j#p%��|a#sh�#���2k�#�|�#ry �ps�#pb��9�#�sa�d $��yj!4$�`�%�qg$�ep$�"e<@v�$:*�$�[��p�$�]'��?[>�?z]%�`�%vd�i1�%�lyk-,�%�,�=��l�%�z�@�x�%�!0��e&poq�bs &�b*&t�(6=&�'w�rh&2\�qp&nyvc��t�&��&�]'�ep$�tw�'~d:(�r�'�kl��>�'��5�l�'�taz��w(r�@�~d:(�_(it~tl(�x�,�dm�(�t�(�pi�(��]�a#�(�j�`�<>)^e��w)!,�f���)�l�%��)mq{�"*�^�i��le*^l�x�ne*n9��^�*�:8t���*�#a �[? �v ��o�(s� qh� �`� q�f�� {p���c,@�i��#,�dq[mk, @p�qb,�d&d��,�>m��x�,�{u�,�@�q>,-�m4-rt�h�fk-�r�-�j�n�2@�-�ggc���-x*�y���->o.-dt��t�.��z]�.�x��<}7/d|���y/ds}���/: o=tj�/0�u0{z�o�!0�ran 0gy|�5j90�$�}�;1�0��efw2
�z��>2"o�m�29!"e�w�2�f\�h�2n�~�w�3ui�� �3dj�u�3��x@�4�;�4�d5��p�4@l�5h 5�^b^�
-a5�pv5�d5tw�'��5��5md-�b�5i�d��v�5
-a5�a
6�`d�#6ghch�81�6�&7��6�a�r!�6q1���@�6xx�6)1:t�&7�x�\�~74\�7bd9t=r�7��gr
f8c�]��jo8�~�8���8��b�n9?oi�q�9�a:�kx_�s�:kkkk�3�:�!�q�";�y��o";�4mj�l;�5>ejo;�i\;�%�|c;�q��viu;�ru�;�~7�[u�u�`fr>�>�'i�>r]��v�>lrb�mt?<#iq!{�?p[5=�tf�?�t�&�?�*��o-�?�mt?�s�?
u|3e�?�-x{�8�?�@}��*.}@��)��-�@�t�`�r�@g��z�@z]%hag;��:a�s6ay8���doahu�(�a�le*�&e�ana��.�an���a�$,&d]�l�d|1�q�i�dbl#g�>e�\���ez�v�n�e�v ��'�e�#�c�hfs�]�=bdf�^^n��z[f�y���f�"�o=�f��] w~g� l`�#�g�{9=��g=v�g�o�t�{s
h�-h�pv5p@h�og�ghch'\l��&�h�t�e�hoaq�!~q��y#%�q@gku�nr�q�q��qqg$�r)b;r�,�q��0hr�l��zwr�
{r;1�0��y{r�i�r�� �(u�r�$atxcs�#sw/�=fzps8ts)b;r��ts�#�g3%�s�{�s�;�4��g/t�4>�:8t�gn�bd9t]z[t� �m��td $�`�t�s��,!u�rdi�@gku�u0
g�u���uxcs>�uc;�rxyyv�d�^�v4�o�v�j$w�w�w�6�x�m�2:3�x�q�y���x�3�:��o�x�#s^l�x\<�jg�xq>,- q�x�}<��x_/,j�zy��t��`-y<myv��q�yv^mc���y<z�&xfk{z�kd
�zhp��[�enx�:[�=�^�`
[�0�[(>y��f\�?\i�(��\�m��x�\~�f<1/�\�s���7y]�>aqs�]���c�]hv�i���]��]viu;�]^ph$^�^b^�`.�^�=�^�1_�kx_�a9�ji�_l{�� !`�qb,�� l`�y`� ��t�`�=�}�j�`�qq��u�`�>�`_m�t
a��&na[mk,�9a��q���a��5��>�asq�y�3j�a�zwr�a�t�3b@�z��)ib�u~b1�h��u�b�~#�%;�b@v�$03cd.�b�ggcg-�!�va�c�^����c(�a�u�c�0hr��#�c�j$wvd0q|�`d�d&d�@�m�f�d,-�zn�d�|�#�9!"e2k�#�g e�/e� *�5>e^ee����l\e�>e��eme�hgqwe�u
�t�edu�efd��&fji�,\f<}7/��zfs{tq�f3%�s!,�fqx{~�fxx�6�a�f6�f<z�bl#g�^blkqg�j9r��g8|k=�z�g�-9h�k?oi�u�<mebi�rdi�b*&��b~i�y{r4�i�`-y�^�ix�u�nf�i�~7djtj�/v,�j�8�?w�j�`�t�=�j�4�q\<�j�dk�g�tkzl!{�?�klv:g��3�l<|�<ie�lj l�^(m��k��.�mz*�ma�� �m�hn�y`�gn��!�g)nfr>��^^nv��,mn�kj>�nh#�n�gv'po�
���"�o�"�o6gp�e�oh��.�o�r��v�omg���o]z[thptf�?(ap(s� @p�[? bep=r�7�c�p�qp&��dq�vzq� �<#iq�!�q� ���qq =��,�q�w�#!�q{s
h�4�q�a�f�;�q�l�q|1�q6s�~r�q3q-rie�l��j9r �3�c;�rn[g� �r�-�@�"�sy0�sb(p!��s{fm-dt�y�)1:to
�v�$at�6�x� 0w?0w?0w?0w?m"�t"�s�.�t�/e��t(ap�}�t�o�t�u2�&xph$^�enx[�x,mnf�x&xn
�x�0�<�=.y6�f�� oyrgox*�y�x�u��yd]-sq�y7���yxl�y�t�.��y];yw��y�w��u&z�*n{��tazr=��whkzjx �.tzji��z@�z�.�o���z�`�o��%�z�q�wv{�nh{$,&d�*n{�s�?mq{
hr{��6�jbs{�-x{qx{�@�6m�{�d��0q|�~�vgy|��s�
u|�[|�w)�\�| w~g;�|�g ek�|�.�t�y>�|b�5�ds}xyyv�p}�r>�$�}dm�(�m�}j<�v��=�}jbs{�q�}\
~�=�h,~03c��)9~whkzit~�;�~j{�~0�n�n�~l�s{t�<(>y\*�4e�z �j�/~��6�{p�4\�7��(k�i����x��m�j�����[w�3`�>2 r� �p
j^z�nye�_ati��wb��%�.h j<sh�to>s�r#�l$�}&�m'�m(�)�g)%j,�p.�i/�2�z2'4t4t:5.6�6*8;i8cj8�9�i;�e=k&>e!@jj@r7a�ec�nd�udvf0i4tj�kul%man�%smkxgy�py�]�^ro_co`5a�7apmbhc
2e�lf�qf�)g�:g�rhjmi�ckalthllmnnm}on[rkbs�ps0@ui1vywicy�x}�/�wt�mw��=��=��`�j�nj��9�bv�l�.~�v�=h��j��~�du�� �=i�fj�to�4��m��l����2�)w���lz��%0��c���7�u<�[��t��r�������cb��^�v��\�a�vi�|w�r�������$?��n��
��!�s/����8�*��-��_�$-��f�><�gm����r��c�7"����s�?5����"�gl�bj�h��-���
��"�l%�w�p�2����y����e�`-�|�9;�@�;;;;4ig�@��4@�h@��unknown������������g��.�[x� �times new roman5��symbol3.��.�[x� �arial7.���[ @�verdana;���(�[sosimsun9,����|�8i{�~ light?�����|�8i{�~dengxiana����$b�cambria math 1��h;"�f̺���uq�(q�(a-!),.:;?]}���� & 6"0000 00
00000��� ������=�@�\�]�^���([{� 0
000000��;�[����������..3�q��@p��?�����������������������"�2!xx����y���user
sppm-lib01��
�����oh�� '��0x������� ��
,8@hp�usernormalsppm-lib01154microsoft office word@>�/@�y��\�@�һ�q���
��՜.�� ,��0�
x`t|�������microsoft(.
���� !"#����%&'()* ,-./0123456789:;<=>?@abcdefghijklm����opqrstu����wxyz[\]��������`��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������root entry�������� �f���b�data
������������1table����$�sworddocument����26summaryinformation(������������ndocumentsummaryinformation8��������vcompobj������������n������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
���� �fmicrosoft word 97-2003 �ĵ�
msworddocword.document.8�9�q