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volume 130, issue 6, june 2022
1. title: preference discovery in university admissions: the case for dynamic multioffer mechanisms.
authors: grenet, julien; he, yinghua; k�bler, dorothea.
abstract: we document quasi-experimental evidence against the common assumption in the matching literature that agents have full information on their own preferences. in germany's university admissions, the first stages of the gale-shapley algorithm are implemented in real time, allowing for multiple offers per student. we demonstrate that nonexploding early offers are accepted more often than later offers, despite not being more desirable. these results, together with survey evidence and a theoretical model, are consistent with students' costly discovery of preferences. a novel dynamic multioffer mechanism that batches early offers improves matching efficiency by informing students of offer availability before preference discovery.
2. title: organizational capital, corporate leadership, and firm dynamics.
authors: dessein, wouter; prat, andrea.
abstract: we argue that economists have studied the role of management from three perspectives: contingency theory (ct), an organization-centric empirical approach (oc), and a leader-centric empirical approach (lc). to reconcile these three perspectives, we augment a standard dynamic firm model with organizational capital, an intangible, slow-moving, productive asset that can be produced only with the direct input of the firm's leadership and that is subject to an agency problem. we characterize the steady state of an economy with imperfect governance and show that it rationalizes key findings of ct, oc, and lc as well as generates a number of new predictions on performance, management practices, chief executive officer behavior and compensation, and governance.
3. title: monetary policy communications and their effects on household inflation expectations.
authors: coibion, olivier; gorodnichenko, yuriy; weber, michael.
abstract: we study how different forms of communication influence inflation expectations in a randomized controlled trial using nearly 20,000 us individuals. we elicit individuals' inflation expectations and then provide eight different forms of information regarding inflation. reading the actual federal open market committee (fomc) statement has about the same average effect on expectations as simply being told about the federal reserve's inflation target. reading news articles about the most recent fomc meetings results in a forecast revision that is smaller by half. this exogenous variation in inflation expectations has subsequent effects on household spending reported in scanner and survey data.
4. title: signaling in online credit markets.
authors: kawai, kei; onishi, ken; uetake, kosuke.
abstract: we study how signaling affects equilibrium outcomes and welfare in an online credit market, using detailed data on loan characteristics and borrower repayment. we build and estimate an equilibrium model in which a borrower may signal her default risk through the reserve interest rate. comparing markets with and without signaling relative to the benchmark with no asymmetric information, we find that adverse selection destroys as much as 34% of total surplus, up to 78% of which can be restored with signaling. we also estimate backward-bending supply curves for some markets, consistent with the prediction made by stiglitz and weiss in 1981.
5. title: the dynamics and spillovers of management interventions: evidence from the training within industry program.
authors: bianchi, nicola; giorcelli, michela.
abstract: this paper examines the long-term and spillover effects of management interventions on firm performance. under the training within industry (twi) program, the us government provided management training to firms involved in war production between 1940 and 1945. using a newly collected panel data set on all 11,575 us firms that applied to the program, we find that the twi training had positive and long-lasting effects on firm performance and the adoption of beneficial managerial practices. moreover, it generated complementarities among different types of training and had positive spillover effects on the supply chain of trained firms.
6. title: rationally inattentive behavior: characterizing and generalizing shannon entropy.
authors: caplin, andrew; dean, mark; leahy, john.
abstract: we introduce three new classes of attention cost functions: posterior separable, uniformly posterior separable, and invariant posterior separable. as with the shannon cost function, all can be solved using lagrangian methods. uniformly posterior-separable cost functions capture many forms of sequential learning and hence play a key role in many applications. invariant posterior-separable cost functions make learning strategies depend exclusively on payoff uncertainty. we introduce two behavioral axioms, locally invariant posteriors and only payoffs matter, which identify posterior-separable functions as uniformly and invariant posterior separable, respectively. in combination, they pinpoint the shannon cost function.
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