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��ࡱ�>�� r��~bjbj`.`.2�d�gd�gxq ��66��8d��5o��xnznznznznznzn$q��sf�nq��n��4�n��xn��xn��@�wd��dno05o�t�^t��0t�4k0��n�n*x��5o��t��6b�: risk analysis volume 43, issue 8, august 2023 1. title: a risk science perspective on liability/guilt and uncertainty judgements in courts authors: terje aven, roger flage abstract: this article aims to provide new insights about risk and uncertainty in law contexts, by incorporating ideas and principles of contemporary risk science. the main focus is on one particular aspect of the law: its operation in courts where a defendant has been charged with a violation of civil or criminal law. judgements about risk and uncertainty�typically using the probability concept�and how these relate to the evidence play a central role in such situations. the decision on whether the defendant is liable/guilty or not may strongly depend on how these concepts are understood and communicated. considerable work has been conducted to provide theoretical and practical foundations for the risk and uncertainty characterizations in these contexts. yet, it can be argued that a proper foundation for linking the evidence and the uncertainty (probability) judgements is lacking, the result being poor communication in courts about risk and uncertainties. the present article seeks to clarify what the problems are and provide guidance on how to rectify them. 2. title: can oral toxicity data for pfas inform on toxicity via inhalation? authors: andrew d. monnot, andrey massarsky, lindsey garnick, suren b. bandara, kenneth m. unice abstract: per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (pfas) are ubiquitous in the environment and are detected in wildlife and humans. with respect to human exposure, studies have shown that ingestion is the primary route of exposure; however, in certain settings, exposure via inhalation could also be a significant source of exposure. while many studies examined toxicity of pfas via ingestion, limited information is available for pfas toxicity via the inhalation route, translating into a lack of exposure guidelines. consequently, this article examined whether route-to-route extrapolation to derive guidelines for inhalation exposure is appropriate for pfas. perfluorooctanoic acid (pfoa) and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (pfos) were used as exemplary pfas given the abundance of toxicity data for these two compounds. our evaluation determined that available toxicity and toxicokinetic data support route-to-route extrapolation for pfas in order to derive inhalation-based standards. results from this analysis suggest that an air concentration of 7.0 � 10"5 mg/m3 (or 0.07 �g/m3) would be an appropriate rfc for pfoa and pfos assuming the 2016 epa rfd of 0.00002 mg/kg-day, whereas use of the interim rfds proposed in 2022 of 1.5 � 10"9 and 7.9 � 10"9 mg/kg would yield much lower rfcs of 5.25 � 10"9 and 2.77 � 10"8 mg/m3 (or 5.25 � 10"6 and 2.77 � 10"5 �g/m3) for pfoa and pfos, respectively. 3. title: exploring acceptable risk in engineering and operations research and management science by bibliometric analysis authors: yanni zhang, zhengxiao duan, pan shu, jun deng abstract: as the decision-making basis for �safety� in risk management and risk assessment activities, acceptable risk has always been an important topic of risk-related research. based on the records in the science citation index expanded database and social sciences citation index database via the web of science core collection, 1124 articles or reviews related to acceptable risk in engineering and operations research and management science were retrieved. these documents, published between 1961 and 2021, covered 3056 authors, 75 countries/territories, 1296 institutions, and 323 journals. in this study, bibliometric data such as annual growth trends were analyzed by using descriptive statistics. through the co-occurrence maps created by citespace and gephi, the most productive and influential countries/territories, institutions, and authors as well as their cooperation networks were identified. further analysis was conducted to determine the core publications and publication sources in this field through co-citation analysis. insights into focus areas and research topics over time were obtained through keyword co-occurrence analysis. this study provides a macroscopic overview of acceptable risk research and may help researchers better understand this research field and predict its dynamic directions. 4. title: a bayesian-loss function-based method in assessing loss caused by ship-source oil spills in the arctic area authors: mawuli afenyo, changmin jiang, adolf k. y. ng, paul tae-woo lee abstract: it is difficult to assess the risk of ship-source oil spills in arctic waters for insurance purposes due to many unknowns and the lack of reliable data. however, maritime activities in the arctic area continue to grow, indicating the urgent needs for the development of innovative methods to estimate loss from potential ship-source oil spills in the arctic area. to fill this gap, we develop a hybrid bayesian-loss function-based method to assess ship-source oil spill-related loss and implement an illustrative test on baffin island, nunavut in canada. the results confirm that our method can accurately assess loss and, subsequently, develop reliable insurance premiums for shipping activities in the arctic area. this enables governmental and nongovernmental organizations alike to use the method as a reliable loss estimation mechanism for ship-source oil spills. also, it is a valuable tool in designing measures for safer and more resilient arctic shipping. 5. title: perceived risk, emotions, and stress in response to covid-19: the interplay of media use and partisanship authors: yanmengqian zhou, jessica gall myrick, erina l. farrell, olivia cohen abstract: relationships between risk perceptions, emotions, and stress are well-documented, as are interconnections between stress, emotion, and media use. during the early covid-19 pandemic, the public responded psychologically to the threat posed by the pandemic, and frequently utilized media for information and entertainment. however, we lack a comprehensive picture of how perceived risk, emotion, stress, and media affected each other longitudinally during this time. further, although response to the pandemic was highly politicized, research has yet to address how partisan affiliation moderated relationships between risk, emotion, stress, and media use over time. this three-wave (n = 1021) panel study assessed the interplay of risk, emotion, stress, and media use for americans with different political affiliations between march and may of 2020. findings indicate that perceived risk, emotion, and stress at time 1 predicted media use at time 2, with predictors varying by type of media. use of entertainment media and social/mobile media predicted later stress (time 3), but news consumption did not. later risk perceptions (time 3) were not influenced by media use at time 2. the predictors and consequences of different types of media use were notably different for republicans and democrats. in particular, risk perceptions predicted greater news use among democrats but greater entertainment media use among republicans. moreover, social/mobile media use resulted in perceiving the risks of covid-19 as less serious for republicans while increasing stress over time for democrats. 6. title: hostile media perceptions and consumption of genetically modified and organic foods: examining the mediating role of risk-benefit assessments authors: sai wang abstract: drawing upon the hostile media effect, this study examined how perceived media bias in covering genetically modified (gm) food influences individuals� risk�benefit assessments of it and their food consumption behaviors. the results of a nationally representative survey (n = 1364) showed that individuals seeing media coverage as more biased in favor of gm food perceived it as more hazardous, which was related to a higher proportion of organic food consumption in their diets. in contrast, perceived media coverage as less slanted toward gm food was associated with more benefit perceptions of it, thereby predicting its higher proportion in individuals� diets. more importantly, the indirect effect of perceived media bias on gm food consumption through benefit perceptions was more pronounced among males than females. the findings of this study not only provide empirical evidence of the perceptual and behavioral outcomes of hostile media perceptions, but also offer valuable insights for journalists and education practitioners to improve public understanding of emerging food technologies. 7. title: behavioral pathways to private well risk mitigation: a structural equation modeling approach authors: simon mooney, martin boudou, jean o'dwyer, paul d. hynds abstract: complex, multihazard risks such as private groundwater contamination necessitate multiannual risk reduction actions including seasonal, weather-based hazard evaluations. in the republic of ireland (roi), high rural reliance on unregulated private wells renders behavior promotion a vital instrument toward safeguarding household health from waterborne infection. however, to date, pathways between behavioral predictors remain unknown while latent constructs such as extreme weather event (ewe) risk perception and self-efficacy (perceived behavioral competency) have yet to be sufficiently explored. accordingly, a nationwide survey of 560 irish private well owners was conducted, with structural equation modeling (sem) employed to identify underlying relationships determining key supply management behaviors. the pathway analysis (sem) approach was used to model three binary outcomes: information seeking, post-ewe action, and well testing behavior. upon development of optimal models, perceived self-efficacy emerged as a significant direct and/or indirect driver of all three behavior types demonstrating the greatest indirect effect (� = "0.057) on adoption of post-ewe actions and greatest direct (� = 0.222) and total effect (� = 0.245) on supply testing. perceived self-efficacy inversely influenced ewe risk perception in all three models but positively influenced supply awareness (where present). notably, the presence of a vulnerable (infant and/or elderly) household member negatively influenced adoption of post-ewe actions (� = "0.131, p = 0.016). results suggest that residential and age-related factors constitute key demographic variables influencing risk mitigation and are strongly mediated by cognitive variables particularly self-efficacy. study findings may help contextualize predictors of private water supply management, providing a basis for future risk-based water interventions. 8. title: benefits of and strategies to update premium rates in the us national flood insurance program under climate change authors: fang zhang, ning lin, howard kunreuther abstract: the united states� national flood insurance program (nfip) has accumulated over $20 billion in debt to the us treasury since 2005, partly due to discounted premiums on homes in flood-prone areas. to address this issue, fema introduced risk rating 2.0 in october 2021, which is able to assess and charge more accurate and equitable rates to homeowners. however, rates must be continually updated to account for increasing flood damage caused by sea level rise and more intense hurricanes due to climate change. this study proposes a strategy to adopt updated premium rates that account for climate change effects and address affordability and risk mitigation issues with a means-tested voucher program. the strategy is tested in a coastal community, ortley beach, nj, by projecting its future flood risk under sea level rise and storm intensification. compared with using static rates for all the properties in ortley beach, the proposed strategy is shown to reduce the nfip's potential losses to the community from 2020 to 2050 by half (from $4.6 million to $2.3 million), improve the community's flood resistance, and address affordability concerns. sensitivity analysis of varying incomes, loan interest rates, and conditions for a voucher indicates that the strategy is feasible and effective under a wide range of scenarios. thus, the proposed strategy can be applied to various communities along the us coastline as an effective way of updating risk-based premiums while addressing affordability and resilience concerns. 9. title: disaster risk and artificial intelligence: a framework to characterize conceptual synergies and future opportunities authors: shital thekdi, unal tatar, joost santos, samrat chatterjee abstract: artificial intelligence (ai) methods have revolutionized and redefined the landscape of data analysis in business, healthcare, and technology. these methods have innovated the applied mathematics, computer science, and engineering fields and are showing considerable potential for risk science, especially in the disaster risk domain. the disaster risk field has yet to define itself as a necessary application domain for ai implementation by defining how to responsibly balance ai and disaster risk. (1) how is ai being used for disaster risk applications; and how are these applications addressing the principles and assumptions of risk science, (2) what are the benefits of ai being used for risk applications; and what are the benefits of applying risk principles and assumptions for ai-based applications, (3) what are the synergies between ai and risk science applications, and (4) what are the characteristics of effective use of fundamental risk principles and assumptions for ai-based applications? this study develops and disseminates an online survey questionnaire that leverages expertise from risk and ai professionals to identify the most important characteristics related to ai and risk, then presents a framework for gauging how ai and disaster risk can be balanced. this study is the first to develop a classification system for applying risk principles for ai-based applications. this classification contributes to understanding of ai and risk by exploring how ai can be used to manage risk, how ai methods introduce new or additional risk, and whether fundamental risk principles and assumptions are sufficient for ai-based applications. 10. title: framing socioecological complexity: the long-term evolution of multiple dimensions of desertification risk in italy authors: luca salvati abstract: desertification risk depends on the interplay of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers, among which climate change, soil depletion, landscape modifications, and biodiversity decline are key factors of change in southern europe. the present study introduces a diachronic analysis of desertification risk in italy adopting a multidimensional approach based on four dimensions (ecological, economic, demographic, and administrative) assessed at three dates (1961, 1991, and 2011). these risk components were evaluated separately in southern italy, a formerly affected region (sensu united nations convention to combat desertification), and northern/central italy, a nonaffected region in the country. all risk measures document how the divide between affected and nonaffected regions in italy has gradually reduced. because of local warming and rising human pressure, northern italy has recently displayed a level of desertification risk close to those observed in southern italy over the last 30 years. these results suggest a thorough revision of the national classification of risky areas, that may inform more specific mitigation and adaptation policies responding effectively to recent socioenvironmental trends and local (economic) dynamics. the intrinsic system's evolution observed at both regional and national level in italy may be generalized to a broader european context. our work finally documents the appropriateness of a multidimensional definition of desertification risk grounded on the joint analysis of ecological, demographic, economic, and administrative indicators. a comprehensive knowledge of socioeconomic patterns and processes of change contributes to more precise scenario modeling and design of integrated strategies mitigating desertification risk. 11. title: how effective are community-based disaster reduction strategies? evidence from the largest-scale program so far authors: jingyan wu, saini yang, weiping wang, carlo jaeger abstract: strategies of community-based disaster risk reduction have been advocated for more than 2 decades. however, we still lack in-depth quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of such strategies. our research is based on a national experiment in this domain: the �comprehensive disaster reduction demonstration community� project, a governmental program running in china since 2007. information on more than 11,000 demonstration communities was collected. combined with the local disaster information and socioeconomic conditions, the spatiotemporal characteristics of these communities over 12 years and their differences in performance by region and income group were analyzed. we performed an attribution analysis for disaster risk reduction effectiveness. this is the first time a series of quantitative evaluation methods have been applied to verify the effectiveness of a large-scale community-based disaster risk reduction project, both from the perspective of demonstrative effects and loss reduction benefits. here, we find that the project is obviously effective from these two perspectives, and the disaster loss reduction effectiveness illustrates clear regional differences, where the regional economic level and hazard severity act as important drivers. significant differences of urban-rural and income call for matching fortification measures, and the dynamic management of demonstration community size is required, since the loss reduction benefit converges when the penetration rate of the demonstration community reaches approximately 4% in a province. these and further results provide diverse implications for community-based disaster risk reduction policies and practices. 12. title: life cycle environmental impacts of consumer packaging products in japan authors: pooja pragati, yasunobu maeda abstract: several japanese companies and the government are recently promoting a plastic ban and imposing a tax levy to curb litter and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. this has led to a rapid rise of nonplastic packaging alternatives. while plastics and litter are pressing concerns, it is paramount to examine environmental risks of other alternatives before wide application and legislative action, to not further the risk of environmental damage. this study aims to quantify and compare plastic products such as polyethylene-terephthalate (pet) bottles and high-density polyethylene (hdpe) bags with widely available alternatives in japan like glass bottles, aluminum bottles, paper bags, and textile bags, to find a product with the least environmental impact. a life cycle assessment is conducted from a cradle-to-grave environmental impact approach that includes raw material 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�ojqj^jh$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jh[h)w�5�ojqj^jo(h[h[5�ojqj^jh[h�s�5�ojqj^jh3�h3�5�ojqj^jh�s�h�s�5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�s�5�ojqj^jo(h)w�5�ojqjo(h}onh)w�ojqj^jo(#�u�u�u�u�u�uvv vv�v�w�x�yxyz�z�z�z�z�z�z�z'{({){0{��ƿ��~sfx�fj��h�[h�[5�ojqj^jh�"�h)w�5�ojqj^jh�s�5�ojqj^jo(h�~�5�ojqjo(h[h)w�ojqj^jo(uh�s}h�s}ojqj^jhih)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jh[h)w�5�ojqj^jo(h3�h3�5�ojqj^jh�9�h[5�ojqj^jh�s�h�s�5�ojqj^jh[h�s�5�ojqj^j�uv�z�z({h{�~�~�~�~�~�~�~�~�~�~�~�~��gd�gd)w�gd�s�ion, end-of-life treatment, and disposal. sixteen impact categories including climate change, acidification, aquatic-toxicity, so forth, and weighing is assessed using the milca software. the functional unit is one piece of each packaging product, and impacts of product-filling, storage, recycling, and reuse are excluded for a consistent comparison. hdpe bags performed better than paper and textile bags in 15 of the 16 analyzed impact categories. similarly, pet bottles outperformed aluminum and glass bottles in 12 out of the 16 impact categories analyzed. weighted results also highlight the heightened negative environmental impacts of replacing plastic packaging with widely available alternatives. 13. title: what is wrong with the mission dependency index for us federal infrastructure decisions? authors: daniel a. eisenberg, aaron b. fish, david l. alderson abstract: the mission dependency index (mdi) is a risk metric used by us military services and federal agencies for guiding operations, management, and funding decisions for facilities. despite its broad adoption for guiding the expenditure of billions in federal funds, several studies on mdi suggest it may have flaws that limit its efficacy. we present a detailed technical analysis of mdi to show how its flaws impact infrastructure decisions. we present the mdi used by the us navy and develop a critique of current methods. we identify six problems with mdi that stem from its interpretation, use, and mathematical formulation, and we provide examples demonstrating how these flaws can bias decisions. we provide recommendations to overcome flaws for infrastructure risk decision making but ultimately recommend the us government develop a new metric less susceptible to bias. 0{1{f{u{f{g{h{q{r{e|e}e~�~�~�~�~�~�~�~�~�~�~�~�~�~�~�~�~�~��Ϳ��||�||�||�|||�hzg�jhzg�uhj<hj<5�ojqjo(h[h)w�ojqj^jo(h�s}h�s}ojqj^jhih)w�ojqj^jo(h$?�h)w�5�ojqj^jh[h)w�5�ojqj^jo(h�s�h�s�5�ojqj^jh�[h�[5�ojqj^jh�[h�[01�82p��. ��a!�"�#��$��%��s��x2�� 0@p`p��2(�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p�� 0@p`p��8x�v~�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@�� 0@66666pj_hmh nhsh thj`��jck�e$1$a$ cjkh_hajmh nhsh th$a ��$؞��k=�w[sobi��bnf�h��c��ݓ�v�u�a ��6f��͌�n�|q�sax\�� >�8��o��( �b\�'x�77?��ڐ!��@5?�2�xy}xf�kp��gh�%v�ވ�� b��׫��|��g_��9�ѣ`(�b-�)�(��b"�{g��|07`�]�p�eb�_�?��1�r��!��?s��`��m�-�ʥ�v�_�\ĵ��j��ns.��j�4��cw��\ zxc��筲��/-��x��kp�//��z�֯a)��_�bj��p��5f�� cf��r�]]�*�q� yv)c�e��c��p@�$�=9i��!�_��vhb�%(fv��va ��ߒ��602�- "�o�9idͿ 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