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volume 112, issue 7, july 2022
1. title: monopsony in the us labor market.
authors: yeh, chen; macaluso, claudia; hershbein, brad.
abstract: this paper quantifies employer market power in us manufacturing and how it has changed over time. using administrative data, we estimate plant-level markdowns�the ratio between a plant's marginal revenue product of labor and its wage. we find most manufacturing plants operate in a monopsonistic environment, with an average markdown of 1.53, implying a worker earning only 65 cents on the marginal dollar generated. to investigate long-term trends for the entire sector, we propose a novel, theoretically grounded measure for the aggregate markdown. we find that it decreased between the late 1970s and the early 2000s, but has been sharply increasing since.
2. title: productivity shocks, long-term contracts, and earnings dynamics.
authors: balke, neele; lamadon, thibaut.
abstract: this paper examines how employer- and worker-specific productivity shocks transmit to earnings and employment. we develop an equilibrium search model and characterize the optimal contract offered by firms. risk-neutral firms provide partial insurance against shocks to risk-averse workers and offer contingent contracts, where payments are backloaded in good times and frontloaded in bad times. the model is estimated on matched employer-employee data from sweden. firms absorb persistent worker and firm shocks, with respective passthrough values of 26 and 10 percent. we evaluate the effects of redistributive policies and find that 30 percent of government insurance is undone by crowding out firm insurance.
3. title: using the retail distribution of sellers to impute expenditure shares.
authors: antoniades, alexis; feenstra, robert c.; xu, mingzhi.
abstract: many price indices must be constructed without quantity data at the elementary level. the paper shows that for some consumer goods in the united states and other countries, one can approximate expenditure shares using weights derived from the retail distribution of sellers. these weights are based on the share of outlets selling an item, or the share of outlets adjusted by the total number of items sold in each. relative to using no weights, the paper finds that using such imputed weights substantially reduces bias in the frequency of price changes, in annual inflation, and in price comparisons across countries.
4. title: when choices are mistakes.
authors: nielsen, kirby; rehbeck, john.
abstract: using a laboratory experiment, we identify whether decision-makers consider it a mistake to violate canonical choice axioms. to do this, we incentivize subjects to report axioms they want their decisions to satisfy. then, subjects make lottery choices which might conflict with their axiom preferences. in instances of conflict, we give subjects the opportunity to re-evaluate their decisions. we find that many individuals want to follow canonical axioms and revise their choices to be consistent with the axioms. in a shorter online experiment, we show correlations of mistakes with response times and measures of cognition.
5. title: belief distortions and macroeconomic fluctuations.
authors: bianchi, francesco; ludvigson, sydney c.; ma, sai.
abstract: this paper combines a data-rich environment with a machine learning algorithm to provide new estimates of time-varying systematic expectational errors ("belief distortions") embedded in survey responses. we find sizable distortions even for professional forecasters, with all respondent-types overweighting the implicit judgmental component of their forecasts relative to what can be learned from publicly available information. forecasts of inflation and gdp growth oscillate between optimism and pessimism by large margins, with belief distortions evolving dynamically in response to cyclical shocks. the results suggest that artificial intelligence algorithms can be productively deployed to correct errors in human judgment and improve predictive accuracy.
6. title: factor market failures and the adoption of irrigation in rwanda.
authors: jones, maria; kondylis, florence; loeser, john; magruder, jeremy.
abstract: factor market failures can limit adoption of profitable technologies. we leverage a plot-level spatial regression discontinuity design in the context of irrigation use by farmers provided free access to water. using irrigation boosts profits by 43�62 percent. yet, farmers only irrigate 30 percent of plots because of labor costs. we demonstrate inefficient irrigation use, by showing farmers irrigating one plot reduce their irrigation use on other plots. this inefficiency is largest for smaller households and wealthier households, suggesting labor market frictions constrain use of irrigation.
7. title: monetary policy with opinionated markets.
authors: caballero, ricardo j.; simsek, alp.
abstract: we build a model in which the fed and the market disagree about future aggregate demand. the market anticipates monetary policy "mistakes," which affect current demand and induce the fed to partially accommodate the market's view. the fed expects to implement its view gradually. announcements that reveal an unexpected change in the fed's belief provide a microfoundation for monetary policy shocks. tantrum shocks arise when the market misinterprets the fed's belief and overreacts to its announcement. uncertainty about tantrums motivates further gradualism and communication. finally, disagreements affect the market's expected inflation and induce a policy trade-off similar to " cost-push" shocks.
8. title: estimating spillovers from publicly funded r&d: evidence from the us department of energy.
authors: myers, kyle r.; lanahan, lauren.
abstract: we quantify the magnitude of r&d spillovers created by grants to small firms from the us department of energy. our empirical strategy leverages variation due to state-specific matching policies, and we develop a new approach to measuring both geographic and technological spillovers that does not rely on an observable paper trail. our estimates suggest that for every patent produced by grant recipients, three more are produced by others who benefit from spillovers. sixty percent of these spillovers occur within the united states, and many of them occur in technological areas substantially different from those targeted by the grants.
9. title: digital addiction.
authors: allcott, hunt; gentzkow, matthew; song, lena.
abstract: many have argued that digital technologies such as smartphones and social media are addictive. we develop an economic model of digital addiction and estimate it using a randomized experiment. temporary incentives to reduce social media use have persistent effects, suggesting social media are habit forming. allowing people to set limits on their future screen time substantially reduces use, suggesting self-control problems. additional evidence suggests people are inattentive to habit formation and partially unaware of self-control problems. looking at these facts through the lens of our model suggests that self-control problems cause 31 percent of social media use.
10. title: heterogeneous global booms and busts.
authors: farboodi, maryam; kondor, p�ter.
abstract: we investigate the heterogeneous boom and bust patterns across countries that emerge as a result of global shocks. our analysis sheds light on the emergence of core and periphery countries, and the joint determination of the depth of recessions and tightness of credit across countries. the model implies that interest rates are similar across core and periphery countries in booms, with larger credit and output growth in periphery countries. however, a common global shock that leads to a credit crunch across the globe gives rise to a sharper spike in interest rates and a deeper recession in periphery countries, while a credit flight to the core alleviates the adverse consequences in these countries.
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