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volume 41, issue 2, spring 2022
1. title: do physicians warm up to higher medicare prices? evidence from alaska
authors: alice j. chen, elizabeth l. munnich, stephen t. parente, michael r. richards
abstract: medicare is a roughly $700 billion public program, with physician payments representing one of its largest expenditures. medicare's prices are also administratively set, which leaves the structure of payment changes subject to a political process that may introduce idiosyncratic features and even perverse incentives. at the same time, physician responses to changes in medicare reimbursements are likely to vary according to the policy's duration, scope, and size. we study a setting where broad federal laws contained specific provisions that financially benefit a narrow group: alaskan physicians. the geographically targeted payment reforms were also unique along key dimensions. using difference-in-differences strategies, we find that large, temporary price changes increase spending but elicit no detectable supply response. conversely, generous and permanent price shocks induce greater service flows but not uniformly across specialties. our findings suggest that congress may engage in fiscally inefficient medicare spending to accomplish other legislative objectives.
2. title: salience and timely compliance: evidence from speeding tickets
authors: libor du�ek, nicolas pardo, christian traxler
abstract: this paper studies the enforcement of fines, and, in particular, the effects of simplification and salience nudges on timely payments. in a randomized controlled trial, we add cover letters to 80,000 payment notifications for speeding. the letters increase the salience of the payment deadline, the late penalty, or both. emphasizing only the deadline is not effective. stressing the late penalty significantly and persistently increases payment rates. the effect is largest if both parameters are made salient. the most effective treatment yields a net revenue gain that covers approximately 25 percent of the labor costs of the ticket administration personnel. a survey experiment documents how the salience nudges alter prior (mis)perceptions about the communicated parameters. the survey results rationalize the differential effects of the treatments and, together with the evidence from the rct, offer a broader framework for explaining why certain nudges are effective in some contexts but fail in others.
3. title: the role of government in the market for electric vehicles: evidence from china
authors: shanjun li, xianglei zhu, yiding ma, fan zhang, hui zhou
abstract: governments in many countries have offered various incentives to promote the diffusion of electric vehicles (evs). this study examines the effectiveness of various policy measures that underlie the rapid development of the ev market in china, by far the world's largest such market. the analysis is based on detailed data on ev sales, local and central government incentive programs, and charging stations in 150 cities from 2015 to 2018. the empirical framework addresses the potential endogeneity of key variables, such as local policies and charging infrastructure, by using a city-border-regression design and instrumental variable approach. we find that consumer subsidies for vehicle purchases accounted for more than half of ev sales in china. nevertheless, investments in charging infrastructure were much more cost-effective than consumer subsidies. an inexpensive policy that merely provided evs with a distinctive, green license plate was strikingly effective. these findings demonstrate the varying efficacy of different policy instruments and highlight the critical role of the government in promoting clean technologies.
4. title: in harm's way? the effect of disasters on the magnitude and location of low-income housing tax credit allocations
authors: mark brennan, aditi mehta, justin steil
abstract: this paper analyzes the effect of disasters on affordable housing construction. exploiting the exogenous timing of disasters and 26 years of affordable housing data, we derive causal estimates of the effect of severe floods on county-level low-income housing tax credit (lihtc) allocations nationwide. we find that states respond to severe floods by increasing the number of lihtc units per capita allocated to a flood-struck county by 57 percent in the year after the disaster, compared to other years. we argue that this increased allocation of lihtc units is indicative of a process of institutional or policy conversion, in which states are repurposing the three-decade-old housing tax credit program to meet contemporary disaster assistance and recovery needs. given that the lihtc program was not designed with disasters in mind, do the new units ameliorate or exacerbate renters' exposure to disaster risk? we find that severe floods are associated with a significant increase in lihtc units per capita allocated outside of the 500-year floodplain in an affected county within the three years after a severe flood. these findings suggest that states and housing developers are using the lihtc program to support disaster recovery by expanding subsidized rental options in disaster-struck counties and ameliorating risk to low-income renters by locating those units outside of floodplains.
5. title: does temporary mortgage assistance for unemployed homeowners reduce longer-term mortgage default? an analysis of the hardest hit fund program
authors: stephanie moulton, yung chun, stephanie casey pierce, roberto quercia, sarah riley, holly holtzen
abstract: economic crises like the great recession and the covid pandemic prompt government intervention to stabilize homeowners and housing markets. during the great recession, the primary intervention was permanent loan modifications, with mixed evidence of success. the covid pandemic spurred a more targeted but temporary intervention�mortgage payment relief for unemployed homeowners. little is known about the long-term effectiveness of temporary mortgage assistance for homeowner outcomes. this paper leverages data on the u.s. department of the treasury's hardest hit fund (hhf) program to analyze the longer-term effects of temporary mortgage payment subsidies on mortgage default. our first research design exploits the fact that some states were not eligible to offer an hhf program and that certain metropolitan statistical areas (msas) encompass jurisdictions in both hhf and non-hhf states. in a second research design, we model selection into the hhf program directly, exploiting lender variation in program participation as an instrument. our results indicate that receipt of hhf assistance leads to a 40 percent reduction in the probability of mortgage default and foreclosure through four years post assistance. we estimate heterogeneous effects for different at-risk populations and discuss implications for policy.
6. title: do carrots work better than sticks? results from the national child support noncustodial parent employment demonstration
authors: maria cancian, daniel r. meyer, robert g. wood
abstract: most children in the united states will spend at least part of their childhood living apart from one of their parents; the child support system is designed to ensure that they nonetheless receive financial support. while the system is largely effective when noncustodial parents have substantial regular earnings, many noncustodial parents, including a disproportionate share of those whose children live in poverty, have limited earnings and ability to pay child support. the system's response to nonpayment is primarily �sticks,� that is, threats and punishments. nonexperimental evaluations of alternative approaches have shown promise. the national child support noncustodial parent employment demonstration (csped), a large-scale random-assignment evaluation enrolling more than 10,000 noncustodial parents across 18 locations in eight states, was designed to test the effectiveness of an alternative approach�adjusting child support orders, reducing punitive enforcement, and offering employment and parenting services. we find that csped, using carrots in place of sticks, substantially increased the satisfaction of noncustodial parents with child support services, lowered the amount of support owed, and increased noncustodial parents� sense of responsibility for their children. however, csped had limited to no effects on child support compliance, child support payments, or employment outcomes.
7. title: providing government assistance online: a field experiment with the unemployed
authors: guglielmo briscese, giulio zanella, veronica quinn
abstract: welfare programs often consist of mandated in-person assistance services. this feature can introduce an engagement barrier for some beneficiaries. offering some of these services online can address this problem while also reducing administrative costs. in a field experiment with about 2,700 beneficiaries of unemployment benefits, we evaluate the effectiveness of a self-directed website that supplements assistance traditionally delivered by job center staff. tracking employment outcomes for nearly two years, we find that the intervention significantly increased job-finding rates for some groups. towards the end of the first year, the effect is still 7 percentage points (25 percent higher than in the control group) for prime-age job seekers (35 to 50 years old) and 9 percentage points (35 percent higher than the control group) for women, reversing the job-finding gender gap. we discuss opportunities for governments to scale up similar low-cost interventions to assist social insurance and welfare beneficiaries online.
8. title: can financial incentives help disadvantaged schools to attract and retain high-performing teachers? evidence from chile
authors: gregory elacqua, diana hincapie, isabel hincapie, veronica montalva
abstract: extensive sorting of high-performing teachers into the most advantaged schools contributes to the wide socioeconomic achievement gaps in many countries. the chilean pedagogical excellence assignment (aep) pays bonuses to high-performing teachers that are larger if they work at a disadvantaged school. using a sharp regression discontinuity based on the program's eligibility rules, we estimate how the award affects where high-performing teachers choose to work. the bonus, equivalent to 16 percent of an average annual salary, increased retention of high-performing teachers in disadvantaged schools by 17 to 21 percentage points. in contrast, those teachers in more advantaged schools seem to use the award as a quality signal to stay or move to relatively high-achieving schools. while the program accomplished its goal of retaining high-performing teachers already working at disadvantaged schools, it did not achieve the objective of attracting better teachers from more advantaged schools.
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9. title: turning point: policymaking in the era of artificial intelligence, by west, darrell m. and allen, john r., washington, dc: brookings institution press, 2020, 297 pp., hardcover $24.99, paperback $19.99.
authors: victor kilanko
abstract: the article reviews the book �turning point: policymaking in the era of artificial intelligence� by darrell m. west and john r. allen.
10. title: lessons from ssa demonstrations for disability policy and future research, edited by austin nichols, jeffrey hemmeter, and debra goetz engler, rockville, md: abt press, 2021, 510 pp., $23 (us), paperback.
authors: laura r. peck
abstract: the article reviews the book �lessons from ssa demonstrations for disability policy and future research� by austin nichols, jeffrey hemmeter, and debra goetz engler, rockville, md.
11. title: gender equality and public policy: measuring progress in europe, by paola profeta, new york, ny: cambridge university press, 2020, 211 pp., $29.99 (us), paperback.
authors: shawnika johnson
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